The Poolie Bunker

First off, home to Tamworth:

Home Win 55%
Away Win 20%
Draw 25%

1.90 points expected from this game as per %.

Played 31, Points, 43.90

I'll take each match one at a time and using my stats, see how close I am to the overall points Pools get this season.

What does that actually mean-
Your taking Pools to win?
How are you meant to attain 1.9 points from one game?

It's just Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

It is a mathematical calculation based on Pools % chance of winning and drawing each game and when totalled should give an accurate total points estimate.

So far Pools have gained 1.4 points per match this season.

A simple example as the odds are different for each game but for arguments sake:

Say Pools were 50% chance to win in each of their 46 games and 26.08% chance to draw.

So the total expected from each game is 1.7608 points based on the chances of getting the 3 points plus the chances of getting just 1 point.

That would mean that Pools would be expected to win 23 of them and draw 12 of them.

A total of 81 points which is approx 1.7608 points per game.

So if you take each match and look at the odds, you can get a very accurate picture of how well or not Pools will do in terms of total points.

My head is about to explode....I've always been shit at Maths.

that does not take the main points into consideration. the run clubs are on, the availability of players plus the main thing of certain clubs doing better against certain types of opponent.

Its not Math

My match odds do take into consideration a whole host of variables.

88.2% of statistics are made up on the spot - Vic Reeves

67% of people questioned do not agree.

Quoting Vic Reeves for foook sake really.

Let me help you Mutters If Pools score one goal more than Tamworth tonight we win. If they don't we either draw or lose.

you sound like an ex rochdale manager from the late 90,s who actually came out on the radio with something similar. me and my lad were in stiches in the car when we heard it but the rest did not understand why we were laughing.

you sound like an ex rochdale manager from the late 90,s who actually came out on the radio with something similar. me and my lad were in stiches in the car when we heard it but the rest did not understand why we were laughing.

Doh looks like you just blow my cover Accy.

Well I'll tell you what, people get upset about all sorts on here but Vic Reeves... is nothing sacred?!

Played 31, Expected Points, 43.90, Actual Points 43

Home to Maidenhead on Saturday, odds and percentages to follow later in the week...

I reckon around 27 points needed from remaining 15 games, which is a big ask but one can only hope whilst its mathematically possible. Might get away with less but not many less.
Ah well.

So roughly 6 defeats n 9 wins.
I reckon 11 wins required.
Which is a big ask considering the most wins in a row this season is 2 only happened once.

But we mental with that wicked combination of Hope n Mathematics.

Probably have to win our last 6 with Grey n Mancini playing out of their skins injury free.

Obviously a major ask/fantasy

we are now only 3 points from the play offs instead of 7 a few weeks back if thats any good.

Quiet morning, so have put the the stats through and this is what I have:

Home to Maidenhead

Home Win 62%
Away Win 14%
Draw 24%

2.10 points expected from this game.

Which would put Pools on:

Played 32, Expected Points, 46, Actual Points 43+?

'He's just a workshy fop!' (Graham Lister 1990)

Wonder if Mani O is allowed to play against us, probably play a blinder and score the winning goal if he is.

It is a bit of a Fantasy, Doubt Grey or Mancini will get much game time, With whats left to play.

hope he can play.

Hiya derwent...I'm still here but under the name of Dustin Gee aka MutleyRules...thanks for deleting Mutley's username. That went down well.
MutleyRules still here Herr Derwent.

I had a relapse n believed what LL said last week.
So sorry.

Played 32, Expected Points, 46, Actual Points 44

2 points already behind from just 2 games!

Onto Pools v Altrincham:

Home Win 37%
Away Win 36%
Draw 27%

1.38 points expected from this match.

Played 33, Expected Points, 47.38, Actual Points 44+?

Played 33, Expected Points, 47.38, Actual Points 44

3 home matches and only 2 points!

I'm lost for words!!!

I was just about to say the same, how can you predict results after Pools last 3 home games.

Away to Aldershot:

Home Win 33%
Away Win 37%
Draw 30%

Points expected from this game, 1.41 points

Played 34, Expected Points, 48.79, Actual Points 44 + ?

Think thats why the Bookies mostly/always win.

Played 34, Expected Points, 48.79, Actual Points 44

According to the maths, almost 5 points dropped from just 4 matches.
No wonder Pools are where they are!

I have a horrible feeling we will look back on this season with favourable eyes, as next season I can see Pools in the bottom 4 struggling to avoid relegation.

We need new owners who are willing to pay for decent players to get us out of this division, it has been done before with IOR, we need it to happen otherwise this club will be on it's knees very soon.

you do not need to splash thousands on players and wages when many of the clubs above us in the league are doing well on peanuts because they have something we have not got. a better recruitment and scouting network. never hear of altrincham, halifax or gateshead breaking the bank on players. remember years ago halifax watched and signed jamie vardy. our lot would at best say jamie who or go the wrong way on the A19 to watch him.

Gateshead and now AFC Halifax are now prime examples of how making the correct decisions on Recruitment don't always require trillionaire backers like Stockport Wrexham n Chesterfield.

We currently a million miles behind the Heed n Fax.
And in no rush will we catch them up.

On the money there Accy.
Basic Philosophy.

Maybe I've got me Rose Tinted Spectacles on in thinking we stay up next season.

We got more chance of catching up with Blyth.

well my specs say we,ll finish where we,ll finish this season and the season after and the season after that till there is a change for the better or everyone will just walk away totally pissed off.

Pools v York

Home Win 30%
Away Win 40%
Draw 30%

Expected points from this game 1.20 points which would make:

Played 35, Expected Points, 49.99, Actual Points 44 + ?

Home win = 0%
Away win = 100%

A draw then

Are you offering odds of 1000/1 on a home win, I'll shove a £1 on then.

I really don’t think anyone cares anymore. Going to a northern soul and Tampa Motown evening. Normally I would be taking my phone or racing back to watch the game. Not anymore

think fans care even if the team is just fullfilling fixtures now. we need something from them to keep us going over the summer if only decent memories. up to now i cannot think of any real positive ones.

What a pair of Tipsters.
Shall we form our own betting website.