Boris and Jacob

[Mr Irrelevant]

Utterly superb today. Masterful. I cast my vote correctly.

[RAY52]

This has surely got to be a wind up! I keep thinking I will wake up and it will all have been a very bad dream.

[PJPoolie]

Yeah, better bait needed.

Rees-Mogg is surely a fictional character?

[Mr Irrelevant]

AF65AF11-A16D-45E0-909E-FD66C5C14D80.jpeg

[Jonny]

I wouldn't say that trying to honour a referendum was extreme. The people who are mostly obsessed with Brexit are the cy babies trying to stop it.


I actually think the silent majority of people agree with people like Boris and Rees-Mogg, they just don't say it out loud because it isn't worth putting up with the hysteria from colleagues or family, hence the term 'shy tory'.

[unruly poolie]

LOL most people aren't closet racists

[Malcolm Dawes Knew My Father]

Here's my prediction. While most MPs are away on their jollies, Johnson and co. are going to be very busy promoting their ideas about Brexit and giving away some cash to us ordinary folk. That's what all governments do when they're preparing for an election.

Come September or October the government will lose a vote of no confidence in parliament - probably the only thing that can be done to stop a no deal Brexit on October 31st - and Johnson will call a general election.

He'll blame Labour for the election, Remainers and the EU for thwarting his ever-so-sincere efforts to negotiate a new Brexit deal for us lovely British people, and more than likely win. Johnson is ten times better than the Maybot at fighting elections, so comparisons with 2017 aren't much use.

Then it'll either be a no deal Brexit or the EU will finally blink and work something out that Johnson can present as a triumph.

Not sure what Labour can do to prevent this. An anti-no deal electoral pact looks like the only option. The Lib Dems won't accept Corbyn to lead it and arseholes like Tom Watson will think its another chance to get rid of J C. Not sure he's the type to fall on his own sword so that could get very messy.

The clock's ticking and only one side has a clue what they're going to do. The Tories are all about staying in power, and it's the thing the bastards do best. All the bookies have them odds on already to win the next election. 10/11 looks generous while it's available.

[accrington fan]

LOL most people aren't closet racists

many like me who are pro brexit are not closet racists by a long way and neither are remainers all liberal thinking either.

[Jhumps84]

Here's my prediction. While most MPs are away on their jollies, Johnson and co. are going to be very busy promoting their ideas about Brexit and giving away some cash to us ordinary folk. That's what all governments do when they're preparing for an election.

Come September or October the government will lose a vote of no confidence in parliament - probably the only thing that can be done to stop a no deal Brexit on October 31st - and Johnson will call a general election.

He'll blame Labour for the election, Remainers and the EU for thwarting his ever-so-sincere efforts to negotiate a new Brexit deal for us lovely British people, and more than likely win. Johnson is ten times better than the Maybot at fighting elections, so comparisons with 2017 aren't much use.

Then it'll either be a no deal Brexit or the EU will finally blink and work something out that Johnson can present as a triumph.

Not sure what Labour can do to prevent this. An anti-no deal electoral pact looks like the only option. The Lib Dems won't accept Corbyn to lead it and arseholes like Tom Watson will think its another chance to get rid of J C. Not sure he's the type to fall on his own sword so that could get very messy.

The clock's ticking and only one side has a clue what they're going to do. The Tories are all about staying in power, and it's the thing the bastards do best. All the bookies have them odds on already to win the next election. 10/11 looks generous while it's available.

I think this is remarkably close to what will really happen. No party will get a majority. Labour haven't switched policy to anti brexit so Lib dems will eat up their vote and Brexit party will get the hard right, but at a significantly reduced amount now with Boris in charge. I'm tory, but voted remain, now with all the damage being done i just want us to leave as we can't stay with all the deals that have gone on with EU and Japan etc which has significantly weakened our position. But i feel for Labour voters who voted leave. If the party does go anti brexit where does that leave them? non voters? In which case we'll end up the same working majority we are now but with a few more colours on the opposition bench. So nothing is really going to change and i can see it being kicked down the road for another 2 years

[yloop]

Nobody:
Literally nobody:
Right wing types: DRY YER EYES LEFTY LOONEY REMOANERS LOL WE WON GET OVER IT BREXIT MEANS BREXIT BLUE PASSPWRTS NIGEL FARAGE AND OUR TOMMEH WILL FIX THIS SHITSHOW

Fu
cking
yawn.

[unruly poolie]

many like me who are pro brexit are not closet racists by a long way and neither are remainers all liberal thinking either.

I agree not all people who voted for brexit are racist but how many times have you or other moderate brexiteers called out vote leave and prominent brexiteers for dog whistle and overt racism?

[derwent]

If Johnson turns out to be the disaster the majority of people seem to think he will, then we really are in despair,simply because there is simply no alternative.
Corbyn.......a joke.
Swinson.......wants further referendums but will only accept one result.
Farage............ ?????????
The Labour party needs to represent ALL social thinking people and not just the extreme left.
I can't find any party who represents me and my thinking anymore.
The only option is to wait and see if Johnson and his new crew really do get stuck in and sort the current mess out. He is promising but will he deliver??

[Dalton'sHaircut]

many like me who are pro brexit are not closet racists by a long way and neither are remainers all liberal thinking either.[/quote]

Genuine question, after the last 3 years what are your reasons for still being pro-Brexit and ideally please can you give concrete reasons and not just slogans like 'take back control'?

[Mr Irrelevant]

Labour have no chance under this Marxist leadership. Sure the membership won’t ever vote against the dear leader but until they do they will remain in their echo chamber. Worse still for them, they are now up again two real orators in Boris and Jacob and Cummings behind the scenes as the master strategist - think Alastair Campbell on steroids.

As was shown yesterday, Corbyn and McConnell are just outclassed at the despatch box and like it or not this matters as the country watches them look sillier and sillier. To add insult to injury Corbyn’s new strapline of a ‘far right’ cabinet will blow up in his face because Boris is actually a very middle of the road politician with quite liberal instincts. It continues: Boris has created his own feel good ‘‘Falklands factor’ which gives him a substantial bounce.

Ultimately I agree largely with Mr Dawes. Boris will play hardball with the EU and they will either blink and Boris is a hero or there is a parliament forces a GE and he goes to the country. In that scenario the Brexit vote returns to Boris along with a lot of middle ground Labour leave voters, because they really want Brexit.

That leaves Labour and the Liberals fighting for the metropolitan remainers. My prediction for a General Election is a massive Boris majority akin to Maggie in 83.

[Dalton'sHaircut]

. I'm tory, but voted remain, now with all the damage being done i just want us to leave as we can't stay with all the deals that have gone on with EU and Japan etc which has significantly weakened our position. [/quote]

Not sure I understand this sentence, the deals with the EU and Japan unless we leave are our deals and ones which we could enjoy. They would make Britain's trading position stronger not weaker, just like the EU deal with Mercusor (South American trading block) recently signed.

The deals weaken the UK's position if we leave, which we are doing by choice right now, we are not being forced out by the EU who will continue to carry on their business of strengthening the security and economics of their members.

For those people who now want to leave because they are tired of Brexit, leaving won't make it go away, it means we will have 10 years of this at list as the whole engine room of our country will require re-engineering from geo-political infrastructure and relationships, legal and shared institutions like Euratom and intelligence and of course re-negotiating almost every single trade deal we have from a much weaker position than today where we do as one of the worlds 3 strongest blocks. It is going to non-stop Brexit fall out for many years. I hope the benefits, if anyone can explain what they are tangibly, are worth it.

[Pooly_Imp]

If Johnson turns out to be the disaster the majority of people seem to think he will, then we really are in despair,simply because there is simply no alternative.
Corbyn......a joke.
Swinson......wants further referendums but will only accept one result.
Farage.......... ?????????
The Labour party needs to represent ALL social thinking people and not just the extreme left.
I can't find any party who represents me and my thinking anymore.
The only option is to wait and see if Johnson and his new crew really do get stuck in and sort the current mess out. He is promising but will he deliver??

Nail on the head.
Labour folks are so busy telling everyone that the Tories are bad that they have forgotten to try and convince people that Corbyn & Co are not just as terrible. Even if you believe that Corbyn is misunderstood and merely the victim of smear campaigns, he clearly isn't going to get into number ten. He couldn't defeat Theresa May's half hearted election campaign and I have no faith that he can beat BoJo either. Labour should have a clear-out, step back towards the centre for the sake of the country.

[Jhumps84]

. I'm tory, but voted remain, now with all the damage being done i just want us to leave as we can't stay with all the deals that have gone on with EU and Japan etc which has significantly weakened our position.

Not sure I understand this sentence, the deals with the EU and Japan unless we leave are our deals and ones which we could enjoy. They would make Britain's trading position stronger not weaker, just like the EU deal with Mercusor (South American trading block) recently signed.

The deals weaken the UK's position if we leave, which we are doing by choice right now, we are not being forced out by the EU who will continue to carry on their business of strengthening the security and economics of their members.

For those people who now want to leave because they are tired of Brexit, leaving won't make it go away, it means we will have 10 years of this at list as the whole engine room of our country will require re-engineering from geo-political infrastructure and relationships, legal and shared institutions like Euratom and intelligence and of course re-negotiating almost every single trade deal we have from a much weaker position than today where we do as one of the worlds 3 strongest blocks. It is going to non-stop Brexit fall out for many years. I hope the benefits, if anyone can explain what they are tangibly, are worth it.[/quote]

Sorry, i'll explain a little. The deal we had the Japan was because we had entry to the common market and free trade thus they didn't need an EU one and our deal allowed them to build cars here and other perks. Taking that away means, yes as part of Europe we have access to that but all those little side perks like investment in the UK has now vanished. The irony is that it was all the hard right thatcherite tories who wanted Brexit, but it was actually her who recognised the value of the EU and got the Japan deal. So my point is, we've lost what was an exclusive to us thing, and, if we stay we no longer have that special little way in to a big asian market so our power is diminished. I would have loved remain to have won, but it didn't, and the mess int he last 3 years has made us economically weaker. There is the potential of an American deal, but then that has such negative coverage, even though i don't get why we wouldn't want bacteria free chicken when 80% of stuff sold in our supermarkets its riddled with it. But anyway i digress into other areas.

[Dalton'sHaircut]

.[/quote]

Sorry, i'll explain a little. The deal we had the Japan was because we had entry to the common market and free trade thus they didn't need an EU one and our deal allowed them to build cars here and other perks. Taking that away means, yes as part of Europe we have access to that but all those little side perks like investment in the UK has now vanished. The irony is that it was all the hard right thatcherite tories who wanted Brexit, but it was actually her who recognised the value of the EU and got the Japan deal. So my point is, we've lost what was an exclusive to us thing, and, if we stay we no longer have that special little way in to a big asian market so our power is diminished. I would have loved remain to have won, but it didn't, and the mess int he last 3 years has made us economically weaker. There is the potential of an American deal, but then that has such negative coverage, even though i don't get why we wouldn't want bacteria free chicken when 80% of stuff sold in our supermarkets its riddled with it. But anyway i digress into other areas.[/quote]

Hi well I understand what you are trying to say ie that now Japan had a free trade deal with the EU they no longer need to manufacture in the UK to enjoy the benefits of zero tariff frictionless trade they get today because we are members of the EU. However what the Japanese ambassador to the UK has pointed out a number of times formally to the UK government, continued presence of Japanese companies manufacturing in the UK is dependent on zero tariff frictionless trade. If we leave all Japanese business and investment in the UK is at risk, it's as simple as that, if we stay there is still an attractive reason to manufacture in the Eurozone due to proximity to market and short agile supply chains which protect free cash flows (in the car industry this is particularly critical eg a passenger car from Japan to be sold in Europe takes around 50 days lead time of stock in transit, a car carrier with around 11 thousand cars on means that's about 125M euros of cash tied up. Average Lead time of a car built in Sunderland to Europe for example is 20 days an equivalent of 12M euros. Sorry for starting a long boring explanation but manufacturing in UK as part of EU is still attractive for industry but with tariffs out and import delays in it becomes less so and more volatile to commit to future investments

I agree we are already economically weaker but this will be made demonstrably worse by any version of Brexit that occurs now. Our power today rests in being part of the only trading block able to stand toe to toe with China and the US and do deals on that basis as well as the attractiveness of the rest of the world to have access to the EU as a market.

[Bluestreak]

"they are now up again two real orators in Boris and Jacob"

Windbags i would say.

[Bluestreak]

Well said Mr Dalton these are the type of real facts that need to be publicised.

[derwent]

i haven't read the deal which the EU has with Japan but what is to stop Japan manufacturing it's cars in Sunderland and then shipping them to the EU or does it specifically state in the EU/Japan agreement that can't happen if and when we leave the EU????. This is a genuine question.

[unruly poolie]

A genuinely stupid question

[derwent]

Seems a reasonable question to me, unlike your answer.

[Malcolm Dawes Knew My Father]

i haven't read the deal which the EU has with Japan but what is to stop Japan manufacturing it's cars in Sunderland and then shipping them to the EU or does it specifically state in the EU/Japan agreement that can't happen if and when we leave the EU????. This is a genuine question.

Nothing stupid about it Mr. Derwent. The existing agreement lowers tariffs between the EU and Japan. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal that agreement wouldn't apply and cars made in Sunderland but sold in the EU would cost more than they do at the present time.

[derwent]

Thank you Mr Dawes.

[unruly poolie]

If you need that explaining to you I can't see how you can have an opinion on brexit

[Dalton'sHaircut]

i haven't read the deal which the EU has with Japan but what is to stop Japan manufacturing it's cars in Sunderland and then shipping them to the EU or does it specifically state in the EU/Japan agreement that can't happen if and when we leave the EU????. This is a genuine question.

In very simple terms Japan couldn't make a car in the UK and pretend it was made in Japan, every car has a VIN code that identifies it as built in the country of origin, you can't avoid declaring the country of origin of any goods manufactured. This is due to very complicated international customs laws as well, when a car is exported the receiving country knows the content of the goods based on it's origin of manufacture. So it doesn't just allow parts and goods to flow freely within the EU (as in all the standards comply automatically cross borders within the EU), it also means cars in this example we export to other parts of the world accept the EU standards applied.

As MDKMF states as well the customs element is one thing the tariffs when we drop out of the single market are another, a No Deal or WTO Brexit would automatically incur a 10% tariff on all UK cars being sold in Europe, I can confirm that the profit margin on a car is nowhere near 10%, it would leave UK made cars either deeply unprofitable or ultimately highly uncompetitive if it was recovered in pricing. On top of this exports to other markets also rely on EU FTA's that we have, I know for a fact a number of overseas markets will automatically cancel their volume from the UK if we crash out of those deals because the cars become loss making.

At the same time parts currently tariff free and sourced in Europe which can pass into our supply chains free from customs checks also become more expensive on top of the massive impact already caused by the devalued pound.

The Japan deal basically means that from now, each year the tariff drop on finished vehicles coming from Japan into the EU to be tariff free by I think 2025.

At the end of the day the EU as it stands is 'us', our whole political and economic infrastructure is based on that, ripping the UK out means starting most things from scratch including our geopolitical standing and influence which should not be sniffed at, we've already seen we are at risk of becoming a poodle to the US. I hope it is all worth it to get rid of a few poor Polish fruit pickers who have 'nicked' our jobs (PS EU migrants in the UK contribute a net positive £2.3k per person to the exchequer!)

[Bluestreak]

So that means the price of the cars will go up in Europe or Nissan UK will have to reduce its margins.
Either way anyone who works for a company like Nissan or is a relative or is in some way in the supply chain of such companies need to realise that that those companies become less competitive and jobs are likely to be lost.
Our Brexiteers leaders dont like tell economic facts they just chant rabble rousing slogans.

[Dalton'sHaircut]

So that means the price of the cars will go up in Europe or Nissan UK will have to reduce its margins.
Either way anyone who works for a company like Nissan or is a relative or is in some way in the supply chain of such companies need to realise that that those companies become less competitive and jobs are likely to be lost.
Our Brexiteers leaders dont like tell economic facts they just chant rabble rousing slogans.

It applies to all the car industry in reality and also most of other types of manufacturing. For those who have researched beyond the headlines of just the sloganeering politicians spouting meaningless phrases about sovereignty, control, democracy (none of which were in fact lost or threatened) this has all been in plain sight from the start.

You know for climate change for every thousand scientists who support the facts of man made climate change but there is one who denies it and the BBC or whoever show 1 vs 1 as a balanced view, Brexit economics is the same.

Brexit has one economist, a guy called Patrick Minford who is quoted and trotted out as the economist who believes Brexit will be wonderful for the UK economy (he's the one Rees-Mogg and the rest always refer to. This guy is on record saying that the manufacturing industries, particularly the car industry and farming will be casualties of Brexit but it's just like the loss of the coal industry and we should accept it for the greater good.

Nearly all other economists tell us Brexit is bad for the UK

[unruly poolie]

Good to see Rees Mogg bringing back imperial measurements, hopefully child chimney sweeps will be next.

[RemotePoolie]

I agree not all people who voted for brexit are racist but how many times have you or other moderate brexiteers called out vote leave and prominent brexiteers for dog whistle and overt racism?

I've personally never understood why some voted for Brexit without nationalist intentions, I mean, wasn't it established from day one Brexit was economically bad news?

[RemotePoolie]

Nobody:
Literally nobody:
Right wing types: DRY YER EYES LEFTY LOONEY REMOANERS LOL WE WON GET OVER IT BREXIT MEANS BREXIT BLUE PASSPWRTS NIGEL FARAGE AND OUR TOMMEH WILL FIX THIS SHITSHOW

*Drinks carling* WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK!

[derwent]

What puzzles me is these draconian painted outcomes really only apply to a no deal brexit. What about if a deal was reached which balanced the situation a little bit more.
If the EU has intentions of sanctioning the uk through tarriffs will that not trigger a tit for tat response from the uk. The EU sell us more than we sell them to the tune of billions so are they prepared to lose their supply of goods to the uk by creating a tarriff war????
Why are the EU against a no deal themselves when a no deal will allegedly make them richer through tarriffs and, at the same time, put a stranglehold on the uk economy and turn us into a third world nation. Maybe because they are terrified that seeing us go will trigger the floodgates and so an example has to be made of us. If they try to squeeze the uk, there will be a backlash. Hard nosed EU businessmen and businesses don't want to lose the uk market.
On here we have exit at all costs and remain under any circumstance. I differ insomuch that I want to see both sides. I also want our country to be united as one. We had a referendum and a result. We could have another ten referendums with ten results but until we all decide to abide by the result and work together to make the will of the people work as best possible, we will always have chaos. When I asked the question I knew the answer I would get. Their is no tolerance and no end to the name calling, and the patronisation.
The biggest insult which has been made to the British people has been generated by the people clamouring to have the possibility of no deal removed from the negotiating table.
Anybody who is au fait with the art of negotiating will tell you that removing a major negotiating tool from your armoury is tantamount to capitulation, which the remain side are fully aware of, which is why they want it removing, in order to undermine the possibility of a succesful brexit. Anybody who can't see that wants sectioning and, as the guy who tried to call me stupid said, simply doesn't understand and shouldn't be involved.
Continue with the racist and other accusations , abuse and insults and you will get nowhere, whilst the country's position deteriorates by the day.
For those of you who want to call me names and refer me as stupid have a real good look at yourselves for you will never influence me by such methods.

[TalbotAvenger]

AF65AF11-A16D-45E0-909E-FD66C5C14D80.jpeg

Rather a lefty than a cap doffing, forelock tugging working class Tory

I’m surprised you haven’t been asked in to clean Johnson’s parlour, before retiring to you attic bedroom, or being asked to squire JRMs missus

You just don’t get it, do you, even though you vote for them, The Tory party wouldn’t piss on you if you were allergic to piss

[accrington fan]

I agree not all people who voted for brexit are racist but how many times have you or other moderate brexiteers called out vote leave and prominent brexiteers for dog whistle and overt racism?[/quote]

I've personally never understood why some voted for Brexit without nationalist intentions, I mean, wasn't it established from day one Brexit was economically bad news?[/quote]
as a person who actually lived and worked before we joined the common market never mind the EU i must say its not been e roaring success economically since we joined. the motor industry gets mentioned many times by remainers but we did actually have our own in the 70,s with exports all around the commonwealth countries. coventry was the british version of detroit with a large majority of the city engaged in the manufacture of cars and componants. coventry did survive the closures of these factories and less than 20 years later unemployment was lower than average. think it just isn,t brexit that is the problem its just the face of it that some do not like. jacob rees mogg and farage etc. may loose rather than gain support of it.

[Bluestreak]

The future.

all-agro.jpg

A new dimension in horror!

[accrington fan]

[quote="phil"]There are some walls of text in this thread like. Has no one ever heard of paragraphs before? JRM Esquire would not be pleased.

sod him and the spelling police. how i got an O level english language pass still a puzzle 55 years later.

[UnreliableSalopian]

If the EU has intentions of sanctioning the uk through tarriffs will that not trigger a tit for tat response from the uk. The EU sell us more than we sell them to the tune of billions so are they prepared to lose their supply of goods to the uk by creating a tarriff war????
Why are the EU against a no deal themselves when a no deal will allegedly make them richer through tarriffs and, at the same time, put a stranglehold on the uk economy and turn us into a third world nation. Maybe because they are terrified that seeing us go will trigger the floodgates and so an example has to be made of us. If they try to squeeze the uk, there will be a backlash. Hard nosed EU businessmen and businesses don't want to lose the uk market.

Tarriffs are a zero-sum game in the vast majority of cases. The people who end up paying them are not the companies who are exporting - it's the consumers in the countries, through increased prices. Many economists in the US are highly alarmed by the way Trump presents Tarriffs there as benefitting the US Economy - the opposite is true, as effectively you are reducing the spending power of your own people unless you are completely self-reliant in terms of raw materials, manufacturing, food etc. We are not and have not for centuries been self-reliant, and trying to be in future is foolishness. (By the way - know which country has had an official policy of self-reliance? North Korea, they call it "Juche", it doesn't work but no-one is allowed to say so there...)

Businesses in the EU don't want to lose access to the UK market, but current rhetoric suggests that the UK is talking about unilaterally dropping tarriffs in any case to keep goods flowing in - so they won't lose out. UK companies however will unless a free trade deal is agreed. The proportion of trade that the EU as a whole does with the UK is lower than the proportion of trade the UK does with the EU - the figures are out there if you don't believe me - so who is going to hurt more?

Also, to be brutally honest, why should the EU lie on its back and let us tickle its tummy? For some (not all) the answer seems to be, "But we're Britain!" Boris seems to be trying to recall the days of Empire, to appeal to the sort of jingoistic patriotism that Daily Express readers will lap up, but isn't grounded in reality. Gove's comments this morning effectively seem to be trying to get ready for blaming the EU for a no-deal situation which is entirely of our own making - we've told them we don't want to be in their club, we won't contribute any more, so why will they say yes when we say we want to retain many of the benefits of being on the inside? Imagine you said to Pools that you weren't going to pay up for a Season Ticket any more, but still wanted to get into games at a discount price. Why would they say yes?

[Bossa Nova]

Stop talking sense Shropshire lad, that just won't do now "we've got our country back"!

[Bluestreak]

I heard that the UK is self sufficient in carrots.
So its all fine then.

bunny.jpg

[derwent]

I said the EU sell us more than we sell them. The figures I've got are from the House of Commons library.
Anybody can check these figures.
Anybody who disbelieves these figures will have to take the matter up with the H O C library.
E. G.
Latest figures 2018
EU to UK..................£345 billion
UK to EU..................£289 billion.
I can only quote what is there.
I could of course start quoting any percentages and proportions of this that and the other to make the figures say different things. I choose not to do that but just to quote the figures verbatim.
Doing anything else would be getting myself into the murky area of lies, damned lies and statistics, to quote a well worn phrase.
Not interested in going there.

[UnreliableSalopian]

I said the EU sell us more than we sell them. The figures I've got are from the House of Commons library.
Anybody can check these figures.
Anybody who disbelieves these figures will have to take the matter up with the H O C library.
E. G.
Latest figures 2018
EU to UK..............£345 billion
UK to EU..............£289 billion.
I can only quote what is there.
I could of course start quoting any percentages and proportions of this that and the other to make the figures say different things. I choose not to do that but just to quote the figures verbatim.
Doing anything else would be getting myself into the murky area of lies, damned lies and statistics, to quote a well worn phrase.
Not interested in going there.

I'm assuming you mean this one:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk ... y/CBP-7851

Percentages are important in this though, aren't they? The economy of the UK only is going to be considerably smaller than the other 27 EU countries combined; if you don't think they matter, then tell you what - I'll give you two slices of my 12" Pizza in exchange for two slices of your 18" pizza, it's a fair swap....

Goods and services exported to the EU make up 46% of all UK Exports - so almost half of what we sell overseas goes to the EU. A No-Deal Brexit then risks Tariffs on almost half of what we export, making all of those things more expensive and therefore less attractive. OK a proportion of that is being re-exported (what's sometimes called the Rotterdam Effect), but that is likely to be more than offset by the further 12% of UK Exports that are currently tariff-free due to deals we have through the EU that will have to be separately renegotiated in the case of a no-deal - the vast majority of which have not been done, other than a few deals with places like the Faroe Islands.

According to the IMF (Link: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/08/10/the-lo ... ean-union/) the UK accounts for about 13% of EU exports. Not a small number admittedly, but with new trade deals all the time (Japan, South America amongst the most recent) they are also better placed to find other places to sell that, and that's assuming that the UK retaliates in kind by imposing tariffs - not a foregone conclusion given that we are heavily reliant on food imports from the EU for starters.

I'm not saying that it wouldn't cause problems for the EU, but nothing like the problems it will cause for us.....

[mugsy]

Three years on and people are still rehashing the remain arguments. We live in a democracy and the majority of people who voted want to leave the E.U. I strongly believe all the talk of another referendum has strengthened the E.U.s belief that giving us a bad deal would result in their preferred option of the U.K. staying in the E.U. and therefore weakening the U.Ks hand in the negotiations. One of the reasons I voted leave was that I do not believe that the E.U. is democratic. It is run by unelected officials and has little regard for the will of the people, and the way it has conducted the negotiations strengthens that belief.
As far as the Japanese car factories in Europe are concerned I read recently that car factories in Japan can produce millions of more cars than they do at the moment so my guess is that with the recent trade agreement, and sales of cars going down Europewide, the writing may be on the wall for many Japanese car factories in Europe.
Leaving the E.U. may be good or bad for the economy but we will never know and wether we eventually leave or not economies fluctuate all the time so we won't know wether it was leaving or staying the resulted in the economy being good or bad.
Anyone looking for a left wing party that's supports Brexit should Google the S.D.P.

[Sussex UK]

[quote="derwent"]What puzzles me is these draconian painted outcomes really only apply to a no deal brexit. What about if a deal was reached which balanced the situation a little bit more.





Anybody who's quoted a Financial or Economics 'mystic meg' expert in the past month ???


Don't wind em up..

[mugsy]

This idea the EU is undemocratic is absolutely hilarious. We LITERALLY just had an election. Like weeks ago! The new EU Commission President has just been elected by the representatives we elected. It's almost exactly the same as how the British Parliament elects their Prime Minister... Except without a tiny minority of paying members getting to pick the party leader that goes to ask an old woman for permission to form the government. When we have a more democratic system in the UK, I'll accept that as a legitimate reason to leave the EU. And if anyone wants to try and defend democracy in the UK, read up about Cambridge Analytica, watch the Great Hack on Netflix or read Carole Cadwalladr's work first.

Secondly, this suggestion we don't know how the economy will react to No Deal is nonsense. The vast majority of economists are certain there will be a decline. Those currently appearing on the BBC (for sake of "balance") saying everything will be fine are people with huge savings waiting to hoover up property and housing after the market collapses. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Richard Tice, Nigel Farage, Arran Banks etc will all financially benefit from leaving the EU. Yet, we accept their views as though that are disinterested individuals. They are liars. Plain and simple.

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[mugsy]

The pot calling the kettle black. Where do you get of calling people you have never met ignorant. I'm not ignorant enough to abuse somebody because I don't agree with them. You remainers believe you have the moral high ground and can abuse anybody who disagrees with you. In your world 52% of people who voted are ignorant. I did not want or ask for a referendum but when was called I listened to the arguments on both sides and decided that leaving would in the long run be better, I may be wrong who knows, what I do know is all you remainers demanding a second vote have given hope to the E.U that they could keep us in and have conducted the negotiations on that basis. If we ignore a democratic vote then we are opening a whole new can of worms and we may all live to regret it, ignorant or not.

[derwent]

Trying to compare two pieces of 12 inch pizza with two pieces of 18 inch pizza is in itself a bit silly. What about quality versus quantity. Biggest isn't always best. Mr Salopian seems to like football analogies so what about the quantity of Steve Howard against the diminutive Lionel Messi.
Two slices of Messi is much preferable to two slices of Howard.
You can try and complicate the issue as much as you like but it is all designed to baffle people with science which is a polite description of bullshit.
I'll stay in the UK free of EU shackles which is my choice, whereas you have a choice of 27 venues to take your chance in.
If you aren't prepared to respect the will of the UK people and are so desperate to be European then off you go, with my best wishes.
Time will tell who has made the best choice.

[derwent]

The pot calling the kettle black. Where do you get of calling people you have never met ignorant. I'm not ignorant enough to abuse somebody because I don't agree with them. You remainers believe you have the moral high ground and can abuse anybody who disagrees with you. In your world 52% of people who voted are ignorant. I did not want or ask for a referendum but when was called I listened to the arguments on both sides and decided that leaving would in the long run be better, I may be wrong who knows, what I do know is all you remainers demanding a second vote have given hope to the E.U that they could keep us in and have conducted the negotiations on that basis. If we ignore a democratic vote then we are opening a whole new can of worms and we may all live to regret it, ignorant or not.

Brilliant post.

[charco]

Trying to compare two pieces of 12 inch pizza with two pieces of 18 inch pizza is in itself a bit silly. What about quality versus quantity. Biggest isn't always best. Mr Salopian seems to like football analogies so what about the quantity of Steve Howard against the diminutive Lionel Messi.
Two slices of Messi is much preferable to two slices of Howard.
You can try and complicate the issue as much as you like but it is all designed to baffle people with science which is a polite description of bullshit.
I'll stay in the UK free of EU shackles which is my choice, whereas you have a choice of 27 venues to take your chance in.
If you aren't prepared to respect the will of the UK people and are so desperate to be European then off you go, with my best wishes.
Time will tell who has made the best choice.

EU shackles?

.. that'll be the kippers then
.. or the straight bananas
.. or the 350 million a month that could be spent on the NHS

yeah, it makes so much sense

[derwent]

Glad you agree Mr Charco. If of course you are trying to be a remain smartarse then you too are welcome to take your chance with the other 27.
If you don't want to accept the democratic decision of your fellow citizens then off you go mate. We want people in this country who are prepared to abide by democracy. If you can't handle that , then you are free to leave, with our best wishes of course.
Sorry if I appear blunt but the decision is yours and you are free to make it.