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 Post subject: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:16 am 
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Hilary Benn will be PM by Christmas. I'm a dyed in the wool Tory and I'd vote for him unlike Cameron who I could never bring myself to support . I suspect that I wouldn't be alone.

As an aside I think it could also heal some of the divide in the country at large.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:27 am 
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Hope that your wrong; he's another Blairite warmonger.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:38 am 
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Might not be a bad punt Mr I, Benn fell out with Corbyn, Labour MP's seem to be sharpening the knives, the Tories could go into internal Meltdown with a chasm down the middle of the Party, before Boris is paraded as the new leader. This in turn may help Farage gain some support in Tory strongholds. Then their is the very er "vocal?" Liberals led by that nice pleasant man that no one can remember his name. Then of course the Scottish Nationalists are creaming their Independence pants!

British politics should be worth watching.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:26 am 
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Care to back up that prediction with £20 charity of your choice wager Mr I? If, and its a fairly big if, there is a general election before xmas I think our glorious Brexit loving nation will head to the promised land of free trade and migrant free GB under the leadership of the blonde weapons grade cockwomble that is Boris.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:26 pm 
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Shes just played a blinder as well. Sturgeon has just said she will advise Holyrood to withhold legislative consent from any attempt to amend the Scotland Act 1998 to remove the provisions protecting the European Communities Act. Under the Scotland Act which has only just passed, Holyrood now has the actual power to do this - Westminster cannot override her will.

So, as a result, either the government thinks again on a second referendum, or Westminster is forced to rewrite the Acts and specifically override Scotland, making independence inevitable. Win-win for those of us north of the border.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:45 pm 
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I've already asked a fiery Scottish female friend of mine to send her mate down.
On Benn, this morning on TV he stated he didn't want the leadership. Being a politician it probably means he does.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:10 pm 
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Sturgeon has said they didn't vote to leave EU and want to stay, but surely Spain would put a block on that. It opens the way for the Catalans and Basque regions to want independence.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:52 pm 
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I've just watched interview via link- great theatre and politicking. It'll be interesting to see how the Brexit main protagonists respond - probably more lies !


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:53 pm 
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Thanks for the link. She does not want to be dragged out of the EU that I understand as they voted not to leave, fair comment. But would Spain allow a breakaway part of this country to be allowed to stay in the EU. They would have the Catalans and basques wanting to break away.
Scotland voted not to leave the union if another vote was taken they could vote to leave. Possibly they leave the union but the Spanish block them from the EU


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:33 pm 
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You may well know this already, Mr Dykey, but there is a Spanish general election today after the last one resulted in a hung (drawn and quartered) parliament.
It's probably unwise to make any inferences about Catalan independence until Spain actually has a government, which may still not be the case even after today.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:37 pm 
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The biggest shock for me is that Scotland have a football team, how did they do in the Euros? Surely with their William Wallace inspired passion they'll walk the competition


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:04 pm 
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Chip, Scotland does have one UKIP MEP. The waste of skin that is David Coburn, but he's about as useful as a choclate fireguard. Sturgeon has played a fucking blinder, a bit of decent news in a week that has been fucking awful.

Anyway got to go and watch the Labour party eat itself live on Twatter.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:58 pm 
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The issue that Scotland now have is the oil price. I don't think independence is a viable option with the oil price so low and not likely to ever reach the dizzy heights again. The budget would have massive holes in with oil at this price, I expect if they had a referendum tomorrow the would vote to leave, but it would be worse for them than Brexit potentially is for us.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:51 pm 
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Its a no brainer for us all to be out of the EU. Listening to some of the comments over the last few days its seems a lot of people are regretting their vote claiming theirs was just a protest and didnt think it would make a difference.

This whole thing is so far beyond stupid that if it was a film it would be deemed too daft to release.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:26 pm 
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I fancied a change

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:28 pm 
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I agree/disagree


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:41 pm 
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The Colonel wrote:
Its a no brainer for us all to be out of the EU. Listening to some of the comments over the last few days its seems a lot of people are rehretring their vite claiming theirs was just a protest and didnt think it would make a difference.

This whole thing is so far beyond stupid that if it was a film it would be deemed too daft to release.


Don't you just hate it when someone swaps the letters around on your keyboard and you're too daft to realise bbolt


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 7:39 pm 
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Yep. Its the fat fingers and mobile phone situation.

I should stop trying to do it.

Too old for it.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:12 am 
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Montpoolier wrote:
You may well know this already, Mr Dykey, but there is a Spanish general election today after the last one resulted in a hung (drawn and quartered) parliament.
It's probably unwise to make any inferences about Catalan independence until Spain actually has a government, which may still not be the case even after today.


And the rersult is its still a hung parliament but it's looking like Rajoy will connive his way back in. Clearly this will trigger an escalation in Catalan independence claims. And more "give us back Gib" claims.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:31 am 
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Oh give over chip. In two years time the steelworks will have reopened to full capacity, there will be mining in easington colliery, the coal men will be delivering bags of coal down your street, alpine lemonade will be delivered to your door, the milk floats will be ra ing round town and everyone will be happy and employed and there will be street parties every may day.

And you want to leave?

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:00 am 
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Montpoolier wrote:
Montpoolier wrote:
You may well know this already, Mr Dykey, but there is a Spanish general election today after the last one resulted in a hung (drawn and quartered) parliament.
It's probably unwise to make any inferences about Catalan independence until Spain actually has a government, which may still not be the case even after today.


And the rersult is its still a hung parliament but it's looking like Rajoy will connive his way back in. Clearly this will trigger an escalation in Catalan independence claims. And more "give us back Gib" claims.


Mr Monty, please pardon my ignorance but isn't the Spanish a 4 main Party system, The left, right (who have swapped power since the 70's) then the 2 minor parties the far left and right? The left or right couldn't get a majority but don't wan't to form a coalition government with their far left or right counterparts?

Again pardon my ignorance.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:57 am 
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So Scotland is a nation in its own right yet had to ask Westminster to hold a referendum to try for independence, and will probably do the same again.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:10 am 
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Yes Scotland is a country. Amazing eh?

And they wont ask, they will demand it. And get it.

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We'll use the one thing we've got more of, that's our minds, yeah
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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:55 am 
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But they have to ask permission to do so, like the first time.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:21 am 
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Ok but I am still not sure what point you are trying to make.

They ask, they demand, they get. Westminster isnt the Englih government, its the British government.

No one in England is powerful enough to stop scotland getting what they want.

Its funny though that when the English centric Brexit group are trying to get us out of europe, there might be a perception that they would refuse Scotland and Northern Ireland the same.

Seems quite a bit Hypocritical.

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We won't use threats, we won't use fists
We'll use the one thing we've got more of, that's our minds, yeah
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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:26 am 
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The first referendum 2 years ago in Scotland,did they not have to ask permission from Cameron or Westminster to hold said vote. They were not able to say fcuk u we are going ahead regardless.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:46 am 
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yes you have said that a few times, So can you please clarify the point your trying to get at?

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We won't use threats, we won't use fists
We'll use the one thing we've got more of, that's our minds, yeah
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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:40 pm 
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Here's a fact that even the dullest Remaindeer should be able to grasp:

Less than 42% of all Scots who were eligible to vote in the EU referendum actually voted to Remain (1.66 million out of just under 4 million registered voters). So using the same twisted logic found elsewhere on this board, there is NO absolute majority in Scotland to remain in the EU.

And here's an observation:

Despite all the huffing and puffing, Sturgeon has stopped short of calling for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, nor is she going to make such a call any time soon. It suits her very well to pretend either that London won't let her call a referendum, or that she can block the UK leaving the EU by other constitutional means.

It's all politicking and bollocks, but I grant you she's smart enough to know that no-one in London is ready to call her bluff.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:32 pm 
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I think you'll find that in nearly ever country that has a proper, written constitution, you can't change anything without a supermajority.
In other words status quo wins unless seriously overturned. Exactly what constitutes a supermajority remains for each country to define, but it sure as hell isn't 52%.

Yes you can change governnments on 52%. But you reserve the right to kick the bastards (because they are all bastards) out after 5 years. Try getting straight back into Europe after 5 years, go on.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:33 pm 
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Chip Fireball wrote:
Catalonian Independence works for me. Another 2 years of graft and I should have enough saved up to buy somewhere out there, get away from this place. Assuming they will let me in.

I'll keep you posted.

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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:52 pm 
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Montpoolier wrote:
I think you'll find that in nearly ever country that has a proper, written constitution, you can't change anything without a supermajority.
In other words status quo wins unless seriously overturned. Exactly what constitutes a supermajority remains for each country to define, but it sure as hell isn't 52%.

Yes you can change governnments on 52%. But you reserve the right to kick the bastards (because they are all bastards) out after 5 years. Try getting straight back into Europe after 5 years, go on.


I plan on getting back into Europe on Thursday (flight to Montpellier).

As for getting back into the EU, your rhetorical statement begs a lot of questions about the future of this country and of the EU that, frankly, no honest person would claim to be able to answer right now.


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 Post subject: Re: Political Prediction.......
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:55 pm 
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Montpoolier wrote:
Try getting straight back into Europe after 5 years, go on.


The LibDems are going to make it an election pledge. Mind you they were going to scraptuition fees last time, but ducked it, in true brexit style.

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