Who would buy my bet off me?

Obafemi Obsession · **Posted:** Wed Mar 07, 2007 11:17 pm

For those that don't know, I have a Betfred betting slip that has £40 on Pools to stay unbeaten for the rest of the season at 33/1 - a potential return of £1,360. There are 10 games to go. It is likely that we will lose at least one game before the end of the season, but this run keeps on going and going. Just wondered (hypothetically of course) how much someone would offer to buy the bet off me? Serious answers only please.

tucker · **Posted:** Wed Mar 07, 2007 11:37 pm

I`ll turn it around, how much would you seriously take for it????????

Not that i would buy it like.....

Obafemi Obsession · **Posted:** Wed Mar 07, 2007 11:41 pm

£400

tucker · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:49 am

chip fireball wrote:

at the moment your betting slip is worth about 65 quid. so nobody in their right mind would give you 400 quid for it. they would be getting just over 9/4 for their cash, possibly the worst bet of the century.

lincoln will be about 7/2 with the bookies on friday night to win the game, meaning, once you take the percentage they add in for their profit out of the equation, the real odds on them winning are about 4/1. with me so far ?

that makes the statistical likelyhood of hartlepool losing the game, and your bet going down 1/4. in other words the bookmakers believe that if hartlepool played lincoln at home 5 times they would probably lose once.

if your bet is worth 65 quid today, should pools avoid defeat on friday its value will rise by 20 per cent. your slip will then be worth about 81 quid. it will of course rise significantly in value should we avoid defeat at stockport where the real likelyhood of us losing will be between 35 and 40 per cent.

hope that helps.

Is your real name Einstein?????

Tax Paying Poolie · **Joined:** Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:18 am **Posts:** 9053

Obafemi Obsession wrote:

£400

400 quid?!

So you're effectively giving 7/2 on Pools going unbeaten for the rest of the season!

If you can get 400 quid you are one very good businessman/con artist!!! :laugh:

Karl Marx · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:48 am

tucker wrote:

chip fireball wrote:

at the moment your betting slip is worth about 65 quid. so nobody in their right mind would give you 400 quid for it. they would be getting just over 9/4 for their cash, possibly the worst bet of the century.

lincoln will be about 7/2 with the bookies on friday night to win the game, meaning, once you take the percentage they add in for their profit out of the equation, the real odds on them winning are about 4/1. with me so far ?

that makes the statistical likelyhood of hartlepool losing the game, and your bet going down 1/4. in other words the bookmakers believe that if hartlepool played lincoln at home 5 times they would probably lose once.

if your bet is worth 65 quid today, should pools avoid defeat on friday its value will rise by 20 per cent. your slip will then be worth about 81 quid. it will of course rise significantly in value should we avoid defeat at stockport where the real likelyhood of us losing will be between 35 and 40 per cent.

hope that helps.

Is your real name Einstein?????

It looks to me like the great man spends too much time in the bookies!

Albatross · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:28 pm

This is where people that know about such things (not me I hasten to add!) would be offering odds on Betfair. As I understand it, you would be able to offer odds yourself on Pools going unbeaten, and take bets up to a certain level. Say for example you offered 10/1, if you take £100 in bets then you know you can cover that out of your own winnings so you'd still make about £300 - but should it go down, you don't have to pay out and have covered your own initial outlay plus £60.

Not for the faint hearted in a way, and if we did go unbeaten you'd probably regret having done it as you'd lose a lot of your profit.

I'll give you a fiver for it rolfl

Albatross · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:43 pm

chip fireball wrote:

however unless you are in receipt of priveleged information or you have a very good head for figures i wouldnt reccomend it.

Not for nothing is it said that you don't see many poor Bookies..... I suspect the exchanges may burn a few that don't understand what they're doing.

Never been much of a gambler, my Dad used to follow the horses a bit but never with the intention of making much out of it. I agree with much of your observations on it - people seriously thinking about gambling for profit need to have a good head for figures, understand odds and probability, and ideally have an inside line somewhere as well.

For the rest of us, the golden rule is never bet more than you can afford to lose.....

Walsallmom · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:58 pm

When I go to the dogs I pick them by name, It hasn't let me down yet. But doubt I would make a fortune :grin:

stupoolie · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 2:36 pm

Walsallmom wrote:

When I go to the dogs I pick them by name, It hasn't let me down yet. But doubt I would make a fortune :grin:

Haha, Thats a typical Mum thing that is rolfl

Walsallmom · **Posted:** Thu Mar 08, 2007 2:55 pm

stupoolie wrote:

Walsallmom wrote:

When I go to the dogs I pick them by name, It hasn't let me down yet. But doubt I would make a fortune :grin:

Haha, Thats a typical Mum thing that is rolfl

Well I've been a mom for nearly 20 years had plenty of practice :grin:

Who would buy my bet off me?

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