Expected Points Versus Actual Points for the Season 2025/26

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

After each game the spreadsheet will be updated so we can track Pools's progress over the season.

[Mulvaney]

Hi Stocksfield.
I may sound a bit thick here, but I don't understand how it works, is it possible for you to explain this in layman's terms?

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

Thanks for your reply, yes hopefully I can!

Each game, I work out the chances of Pools winning, the chances of Pools losing and the chances of the draw.

So say for example, I think Pools have a 50% chance of winning a match, 25% chance of losing and 25% chance of winning.

I then work out what are the expected points to be gained from that match taking into account the chances of Pools winning and drawing.

So the % chance of a win multipled by 3 points then we add the % chance of a draw multiplied by 1 point and we get the expected points from that game.

So in the example, we get 50% of 3 plus 25% of 1 which gives an expected points from that game as 1.75.

I have split the spreadsheet into home, away and total points, expected and actual.
And then used a formula from these expected points and the actual gained points to calculate what will be the final points home, away and the total.

At the moment from these 2 matches Pools are expected to finish the season on around 62.44 points.
This will change from game to game and will give a good indication if Pools are doing well or not!

Hopefully that explains it in a way you can understand.

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

So far so good after 2 matches, predicted total points, 2.88, Pools have 4.
Now our attentions turn to the away match at Altrincham...

[loyal_fan]

Thanks--are these your predictions or the bookies odds of each result?

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

Before each match, I come up with my own percentages for Pools winning, drawing and losing.

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

A very good result away to Altrincham puts Pools well ahead of the predicted points expected after 3 games.
I am impressed with the 3 clean sheets.
Pools are now on for a predicted play off place with 70 points.
Home to Woking on Saturday is next...

[MutleyRules]

Going Underground.

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

Spreadsheet updated, a few tweaks to the formula used for season totals
Will be happy with a point away to Southend.

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

And a well earned point away to Southend so it proved.
2 home matches coming up...

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

A tricky game coming up against Boreham Wood.
I'll take remaining unbeaten come full time, or how about Pools sneak a narrow win!

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

Well it was a tricky game and Pools are still unbeaten!
Boston at home next...

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

2 points dropped against Boston for sure!

Pools will do well to get anything out of the Forest Green match.

We are a couple of points ahead of schedule, and still on for a play off place.
A long way to go and we need better attacking options!

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

As predicted, Pools first loss and our attack exposed for what it is, toothless!

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

3 points from the last 4 games has left Pools with a 'just outside of the play offs' season prediction.
We need some new blood up front for Saturday as we need to start scoring goals!

[Stocksfield_Poolie]

Expected Points 13.51, Actual Points 14.