No worries fella.
Keith Gillespie one’s a good one too

Here is a good book and it is free, written by a fellow pro punter, Alan Potts.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K5tGhK ... tsb2X/view

And in the first race at Musselburgh today, I have managed to get 11/8 about an evens shot!

And the racing has just been called off!

Give us a clue..I've got to put my boots back on Monday,Mr C. give us a break ,plz....I could do this..

Well done Luke Littler.
World champion at 17.
Outstanding talent.
Guarantees ya high quality entertainment.

See PM

Well,Well,Well!!...I opened an old account with a £20 deposit ..went for 2x £3 ew and 1 £2 ew on 3 of Mr C tips and ended with an account showing £68.50 at the end of the day... ... Thank you. You're a Top man. Mr C.

2 nice winners and the 3rd tip led from start until 2 furlongs til finish then faded but yes a good day for me as well.

Indeed..I just need to work on my next sob story to mr Stockfield.....If you don't ask, You don't get eh.

Well done on your winning bets!

I play the game of value and record every bet.

Over the years, the bets that have come back with a Betfair Starting Price (BSP) similar to the odds I backed at have resulted in more or less a zero profit.

My bets which were lower than the BSP produced a heavy loss.

But my bets that were higher than the BSP produced a very heathly profit and one that more than wiped out any losses made on bad value bets.

What you need to do is to record the odds you took, your stake and the BSP that was returned.
From those figures alone you can work out your predicted profit/loss and with the BSP being near to a 100% book as possible, your actual profit/loss should match the predicted one.

I have a betting bank and a formula I devised myself which gives me a stake to use depending on what I think the true price is.
The stake differs depending on this true price, so I may put £250 on what I think is an evens shot and the price available is higher right down to a much smaller stake of say £25 on a 20/1 shot which again is available higher.
This protects my bank from losing runs and I have it set up so if I were to bet 100 bets at my true price at evens and they all lost, my bank would be bust! Mathematically I am safe from ever busting my bank, my biggest losing run has been 30 plus and they were on odds of 5/1 and higher and hardly made a dent in my betting bank.

I could certainly give you my selections on a daily basis but if you don't get the right price and one which I think is value, then in the long run you will lose.

No use taking 4/1 about a 5/1 shot when I have 6/1 about it. I will win in the long run, you would lose.

Spotting the value on a horse takes a lot of skill, I am right about 60% of the time and I do get a lot wrong.
And also these value bets do not win all the time, my strike rate is around 30% but that figure is enough to make a proft.

The racing today at Chepstow has a lot of short priced favs.
The secret if finding out what price you think the horse should be and seeing if it is available for higher at some point during the hours before racing, if so place your bet.

And if you beat the BSP, which is the true price, on a regular basis, then you will end up ahead.

So for example, those on a 15/8 on the fav in the first race have at the moment a value bet.
6/4 on the fav in the 2nd race, again value.
The third race, some unlucky punters have taken 4/6 about a horse trading almost at evens, a poor value bet at the moment.

It is all about the price!

Winner in the first, BSP came back at 2.54
If you backed it at 2.58 or higher, then a value bet.

nothing to do with betting but when her in the kitchen told me cheltenham was off yesterday i thought she was on about racing. however long i live i,ll never get used to that name being associated with anything but horse racing and never football. bit like the boro being named as the cultural capital of england.

Fav returned 1.98 but was beaten. 2.5 a value bet.
Take 6/4 about evens shots and you will be onto a good thing.

Yes Cheltenham, best 4 days of racing in the calendar.

Simple example.

5 horse field, you do a study of the race and come up with the following true odds for each horse:

Horse A 3/1
Horse B 3/1
Horse C 3/1
Horse D 4/1
Horse E 16/1

You take a look on Betfair and compare the odds against each horse, taking commission into consideration.

On Betfair:
Horse A 3.5
Horse B 3.75
Horse C 4
Horse D 7
Horse E 17

Horse D stands out as being value at 6/1. You rate the horse a 4/1 chance.
So your money goes on Horse D, you work out what price you normally put on a 4/1 chance and stick it on at 7.

Over the remainder of the morning, the markets could very well change, you are hoping that the market will settle so when the BSP is returned, the BSP odds of Horse D are closer to the 4/1 you predicted.

If the market does go in your favour and the BSP validates your chances of the horse, then in the long run you will win.
If however the BSP returns is around the 7 or higher mark, then you got it wrong in this case and profits in the long run will not be forthcoming.

Not every race will produce what you think is a value bet, so the race is left alone.
As stated markets will change and Horse D may have started at 5.00 on Betfair and now it is drifting.
Is it worth getting on? You will have to have a further study, is the trainer reporting his horses are out of form, has the going changed, jockey change perhaps, all these variables need to be looked at and more before placing the bet.

So to recap, work out the % chances of the horses in the race, work out the odds, compare the odds available on Betfair, re-assess everything and if you think you have an edge, then place your bet.

The BSP returned is a very good indicator of the true price of the horse and if the odds you get are higher than the BSP on the whole, then a profit is guaranteed in the long run.

I have tens of thousands of bets I can analyse, I have devised a simulator that will play out the race as many times as you wish.
I can prove that the BSP is the most accurate true price of each horse by looking back at every bet I have had and the figures returned are within tolerance.

If the odds you take on a horse beat the BSP, then you have a value bet.

It is as simple as that!

Finished the book in 2 sittings Bazil...what a story!!!
Surely it will be made into a film.
But got me thinking sat in this Hotel room in Manchester watching Rising Damp...3 out of every 5 adverts is a Gambling/Bingo site...surely the time has come to ban all Gambling adverts. The damage it can do is shocking!!!

100%

Just looked for that one but £34 on Amazon...but I'll keep looking.
But ordered this one...

Nick Townsend
The Sure Thing: The Greatest Coup in Horse Racing History

Good read...

The Top 10 Most Successful Gamblers in UK History - Best Of Bets https://bestofbets.com/the-top-10-most- ... uk-history

I wonder if a copy is in the library..........worth checking.

Will do. Everywhere I've looked either the price is astronomical or out of stock.

Pleased you enjoyed it.

The figures he was betting when he was chasing loses was positively sickening to read.

I agree regarding gambling ad’s. Government really need to get a grip but I’m not holding my breath……..

BTW got the Nick Townsend book off Amazon Used but very good condition for £3.84...how I usually buy my books.

Yes absolutely mental...he betted over 10 million but actually won over 9 million...but nicked 1.7 million from the Post Office to do his gambling. Mental!!!

I read the Harry Findlay one on Kindle, gave about £6 if memory serves me correctly.
Do the majority of my reading on Kindle as the rate I plough through books I’d struggle to give house room to them and I do like to re read books I like.

I got a Kindle when they first came out but I do like to hold a book in my hand. I think I've bought about 25 books since December...clogging up the chest of drawers in the bedroom!!!

Someone advised me to read a book then read it again six months later, only applies to technical or reference books, bu5 it’s funny how th3 facts stay in your head…I’v3 got tons of books, love em.
Two differences between a kindle and a book, is if you’re on a desert island, you don’t need to charge a book up……also important is you can wipe your arse on a book.

I've got ten copies of the Labour party manifesto lined up in my toilet, Snowy, so I completely concur with your comment. Ideal arse wiping material.

103 bets so far in Jan, 33 winners, profit of £1092.74, 6.15% on turnover.
Ahead of target.

Are there any tax implications to your winnings. I was thinking along the lines of professional gambling, as the likes of Rachel Reeves could easily dream up some scenario to get her cut.

None whatsoever, otherwise gamblers who lost would be able to offset their losses.

And I pay commisison of 2% on my winnings on Betfair and I am sure HM Government get some of that through the taxes Betfair pay.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

You haven't though have you.

Assuming you observe yourself regularly when you look in a mirror, so one would assume you know a joke when you see one...........old chum.

Took over 24 hours for you to come up with that....I wouldn't have bothered.

11 bets later and now at £2228.20 profit. 38 winners against an expected 34.93

Who knows I may post my bets in the mornings after of course I have got my bets matched.
You never know!!!

No point posting your bets the morning after, any fool can pick a few winners from the results & say they were your bets. What we really need is that if you're so successful is your bets on the morning of the days racing. Then we can all lump on & our combined winnings can buy Pools!!!

Answered it as soon as I read it, can't do better than that. I'm laughing at the thought of you spending 24 hours scanning the bunker every two minutes waiting for a reply. I stay logged in but don't spend a lot of time on here, especially scanning the shite you post. I've started logging out to save money for my heating bills actually. If you've got any spare it would be very welcome. Keep yer powder dry.
Got to go out now, hope you don't get too lonely in my absence.

"I've started logging out to save money for my heating bills actually."



That's up there with you taking Black Disabled Kids to Disney Land!!!

"Who knows I may post my bets in the mornings after of course I have got my bets matched."

Sorry missed the comma out, I meant posting my bets on the morning of the races, after my bets have been matched.
And it is no use in blindly backing them, you need the value price and a staking plan.

Take today for example:

Chart Topper, I have 6/4, now trading at evens, I would not back it at evens but happy with the price I have.

Wins ever so easily.

Under your puppet master it is necessary for one to save where one can.
Leaving devices plugged in can mount up.
Knocked the tumble drier on the head as well.
Heating thermostat reduced a couple of degrees.
Two jumpers instead of one.
I'm exploring more avenues, like asking my neighbours for a lend of their oven space. I mean if they have the oven on and a shelf free I can put a casserole in to make best use of the heat and space.

Like I've explained to you on more than one occasion, it was one black kid and she isn't disabled. If that makes you laugh then fine but I don't think you would have laughed if you had witnessed how distraught she was. At least I hope you wouldn't have laughed but one never knows with you.
But hey you keep peddling your embellished version, it says more about you than me.

You know what you said and so do I...and many others.
BTW....this neighbour you are going to ask for shelf space....is it one of your Solicitor neighbours who you always went to for advice??

Keep to the thread's topic lads.

Howay Stocksfield...it's the Bunker.

More nonsense, I have no solicitor neighbours. You are making things up.

Kin'ell...unbelievable Jeff!!!
That has to get an Oddie Oddball rolling laughs.

Tears are actually running down my face.

Only one winner as far as I am concerned the bookies, in a lot of instances it’s the lowest earners who gamble and do the lottery trying to win some money to make ends meet.
As of July 2023, Forbes estimates Denise Coates' of Bet 365 net worth at $7.7 billion. In 2020, she earned a salary of £422 million and dividends of £48 million