Could you make a consistent profit from betting on the horses?

Would be interesting to know your views

Impossible the odds are so rigged against the punter.
I dont know the exact stats but i reckon £100 thoughtfully "invested" would return about £33 if you are "lucky"
Gamblers only tell you the wins not the losses.

Betfair's SP are more or less to a 100% book with 2% commission.
So overcome the commission and a little bit more and it should be possible to win in the long run.

2 bets so far today;
12.45 Catt - Won @ 10.00
2.45 Winc - Won @ 6.20
Have 2 bets @ Newcy tonite but already well in profit.

I had King Arise, shame about Apples Moon, I was on at 3.25

West Orchard my other winner at 5.5
I have Imperial Jade left, on at 5.5.

I only bet when I have a day at the races, so the money I wager is part of the cost of the day's entertainment - great when you win, no big deal if you don't.

Racing in the UK is in a bit of a state - too many meetings chasing too few horses and on course bookies all offering more or less identical odds. The racing in Ireland is far better - plenty of runners and bookies who aren't afraid the vary the odds and give the punter a sporting chance.

know someone who actually did but he was buying money. he used to bet on the favourite in flat races with only a handful of runners.

I like a day at the races and I too allocate an amount I'm prepared to lose. Any returns I class as a bonus. It doesn't happen very often but if I'm lucky enough to retrieve anything near the original planned outlay, then I'm over the moon. It is a good day out though.

each to there own but a day out at redcar races was the most boring day out i have ever spent. not being a betting man must have helped that no end. i,m the man who would think twice about placing the bet after the race in fear of a stewards enquiry.

7 bets yesterday, 2 winners.
Got 6 value bets, as in I beat the Betfair SP by some margin.
23% return on my investment.

I also like a visit to the racecourse and again I would put aside so much for a few fun bets.
If I come out level or ahead, then that is a bonus. But as you say the bookies tend to have the same prices and usually follow betfair plus their overround. Betfair prices are a lot fairer.

Buying money is a good way of putting it. I've seen blokes put £500 cash on the nose on a 5/4 favourite. Where's the fun in that? I'd spend the race shitting bricks in case it got beat.

There’s much worse than that. In my old job I seen plenty a man blow their load on massive odds on shots trying to buy almost literal pennies. I should’ve been sympathetic but never was.

To answer the original question though, it’s possible but tough. As soon as the bookies think you’ve got an edge they will just restrict you. Add to that the affordability checks in place these days it’s difficult to even get a bet on never mind a series of good value winning bets.

Her is a good example how some sports are fixed. Cannot remember the year but around 2018ish. I put a bet on Liverpool to beat Burnley 3-0. Liverpool scored the third goal to go 3-0 on the hour mark after tearing Burnley apart for the hour. I was driving and listening to BBC sports and crumbled up my bet through it on the floor because no way was the final score going to stay at 3-0 it was all Liverpool wave after wave. During the live commentary the game accidently switched to the sports desk and this is what the female said " Liverpool go top of the Premier league this evening after beating Burnley 3-0 this afternoon " it then went back to commentary and BBC Commentator mumberling said sorry about that interupution I have no idea what that was about and quickly moved on. I rang my mate ( who is on the bunker ) and told him. He said I will watch it now on sky and see what happens. Well nothing happened at all both sides either passed it about at the back or lumped it forward to the other goolie. He rang me back 20 minutes later and said not a single player is trying to play any sort of attacking football or closing down. I watched it on Sunday Match of the day and it was blatantly obvious it was a planned 3-0 win. That first hour was pure Liverpool attacks and 3 goals but also hit the bar twice and line clearances. Yes I won my bet around £50 but it honestly shocked the hell out of me. It 100% happened which means everyone involved including officials took part in this result happening. I have no idea how many times this sort of thing takes place but the female was surely a pre recording.

Gambling for some is a disease like alcoholism.There are many suppressed horror stories of people being ruined. The advertising should be controlled like for booze and tobacco.
Put the betting money in a jar and treat yourself to something.

Yes i can believe that.

Very much appreciate it Blue. Maybe I would struggle to believe such a story had it not happened to me.

Agree 100%...all betting advertising should be banned.

11 bets today, 3 winners, 7 value bets, a return of 3.55%.

Looking at this message now it looks like you are already making a consistent profit on your bets. Maybe you should have just said " I make consistent profits on my bettting ". Well done hope your luck continues.

It was a genuine question whether anyone thought they could make a consistent profit.
I wanted to know the general feeling how people thought about betting on the horses.

With a betting bank, a sensible staking plan, good form reading, then yes I would say it is possible and it can be done.
A disciplined, logical approach where losing runs are treated the same as winning runs, knowing that in the long run, if value is being obtained, a proft will be made.

If you look back at a reply by me a fair few weeks ago, I did answer that if you find the value, betting can pay.

I do indeed have my own staking plan based on the odds I think a horse should be and will bet on betfair if the odds available are value.

I am not always right, 40% of my bets are bad value, but the good ones outweigh the bad.
Around 70% of my bets lose but my average odds are 7/2 and with my strike rate working out at around 9/4, the edge at the moment is definitely on my side.

Yes luck is needed at times, horse falling at the last leaving your horse clear etc, but with a planned approach and dedication, betting can be profitable. And of course luck does even itself out, photo finishes going one way or the other, beaten by the nod on the line etc.
But good luck and bad luck I ignore, all part of the game.

The vast majority of punters however are mugs and are welcomed by the bookies with open arms.
The ones that make it pay, do indeed have their accounts closed or restricted to peanuts.

If only the government stated that the UK bookies act like those in most of Australia's states where in order to keep their licence, they must lay a bet to win a certain amount. It would make life easier scrambling around trying to get matched on Betfair.

I welcome your thoughts on this subject with a keen interest.

I knew a guy from Glasgow who claimed to have been a professional tipster for a few years. He gave that up for a day job but still reckoned he was well in the black on his own betting.

He came racing with us a few times, couldn't bullshit about what he was on because we asked him before every race, and did poorly. You'd expect a guy with a winning system to even things out over time, but we'll never know - he stopped coming! Shut up about what a genius gambler he was as well

Now where did I put that pinch of salt

The bookies seem to have nailed it.

Yes you can make a lot of money with horse racing. First step is to register as a bookmaker.

Don't use traditional Bookies, just the Betting Exchanges like BetFair & BetDaq and when you find a winning system keep it to yourself.

Sounds easy

Exactly.
Punters Luv to tell the world about their wins while the loads of quiet losses means the bookies don't loose.

Me oldest son won £200 on one of them free bets about 2 years ago.
But had the sense to listen to my advice of quit while your ahead before they claw it all back plus more.
And my advice to anyone who does get a big win.
Retire from that horrible business.
Haven't put a bet on since John Joyce shut down.

Mugs game for sure.

cannot agree more and should be controlled more or make it less sexy to bet. once heavy gamblers were disliked more than real piss heads but you cannot get pissed on line. its a case of getting nothing for something for the majority. enjoy bingo as a caller and a punter but certainly not sat in a chair at home with imaginary friends playing it no matter what the companies say about gambling carefully. thats like asking an alcohilic to pack in after a pint.

If we take the betfair prices on a race, which add up to a book of 100% then anyone blindy backing any selection would in the long run make a loss due to the commission betfair charge.

So if betfair offer a price of 2.00 on a toss of a coin, then with the commission of 2%, you would lose 1% of your turnover.
And eventually you would lose your betting bank, yes it would be a slow decline but in the end, the commission would get you.

Bookies slowly grind away too, using books well in excess of 110%, sometimes as high as 160% depending on the number of runners. They have a high margin of error due to their book percentage and again with the numbers in their favour, they are guaranteed a profit.

A good punter can grind out a profit in a similar way.
Say you were offered 11/10 about the toin coss, this time the odds are in your favour and it even ovecomes the commission.
It works out to be a 3.9% edge in your favour, which means that you should in the long run make a profit.

So it stands to reason, that if you place bets that you think are value and stake accordingly, then if you keep a record of your bets, noting the price taken, the stake and the final Betfair SP (which offers the most accurate price of the horse), then a few simple maths will prove whether you can make it or not as a punter that is a successful one.

There are no systems, just the above logical reasoning.

2 bets so far today, 5.9 which ended up 4.22 BSP and a 2.96 which returned 2.46 BSP.
An overall edge of over 26% in my favour.

Both bets lost but if I keep backing bets at that value, the winners will look after themselves as they have done over the years.

Placing the above bets at a bookie woud have resulted in a traders decision to restrict my account, happened many times before.

Thank goodness for Betfair.

7 bets, 0 winners, 6 value bets, edge gained across 7 bets was plus 22.46%. Loss of 100%.

4 bets so far today;
1.45 Won @ 2.90
2.07 Won @ 4.90
3.05 Won @ 9.21
5.10 Lost @ 5.10
And the 8.10 to go @ 6.20

The interesting thing today was that there were 32 races and where there were odds on favourites those all won;
1.74 in 12.00
1.60 in 12.45
1.33 in 1.32
1.62 in 4.10
1.73 in 4.40
1.90 in 7.40
Not that I didn't do any of them.

cannot be a regular gambler then as you only hear them when they win. they go on about the big win they made 10 years back but never the losses they made since.

Are you keeping track of the BSP?

13:45 BSP of 3.12, so a bad value bet
14:07 BSP of 3.62 so a good value bet
15:05 BSP of 10.78, so a bad value bet

Try and beat the BSP and you should be fine.

Looking back at my records:

2001 - 2003 part time. Horse racing and sports betting.
2001 £5k profit
2002 £3k profit
2003 £7k profit

2004 - 2011 full time, horse racing with the odd sports betting.
2004 £42k profit
2005 £112k profit
2006 £62k profit
2007 £29k profit
2008 £50k profit
2009 £20k profit
2010 £31k profit
2011 £3K profit, ran out of bookies accounts, stopped end of July 2011.

2012 -2016 Complete break from betting.

2017 -2020 different strategy, new staking plan devised, a more measured approach, only on Betfair and only on horse racing.
2017 £56k profit, used a large betting bank.
2018 £5K profit, reduced betting bank due to not being able to dedictate the time required.
2019 £15k profit, increased betting bank.
2020 £25K profit, again increased betting bank.

2021 - 2022 onwards, new approach due to difficuty of getting large stakes matched, optimal betting bank strategy for consistency.
2021 £33K profit
2022 £29k profit

2023 onwards- National Hunt Only, allowing a nice break during the summer months.
2023 £41k profit
2024 £37k profit with 3 days left

2025 onwards, will continue with my current strategy, more time off planned, may reduce betting bank and be happy with smaller profits at the gain of more time for leisure.

Profits invested in shares, property etc which give a healthy income each month.

So yes it can be done!

I'm happy to answer any questions and offer advice if you want to make it pay.
A lot of advice is in this thread but I am happy to help out.

Remember only bet when you think the value is with you.
Keep a record of bets which will provide the proof whether you are getting the value or not.
And be patient, it is a slow grind, lots of losing days, even heavy losing months, big losing runs but the wins more than offset the losses.

All the best for 2025 to everyone.

The best way to make a small fortune betting on the horses is to start with a large fortune.

Agree 100%

funny how gambling is looked at differently than it was years back. seems its more upper crust in peoples eyes now and those doing it are not derided by workmates and others living in the street when they are known. still remember my parents asking me not to play out with a certain kid. nothing wrong with this lad apart from his old man being a bad gambler who could be broke by the end of saturday afternoon and was then on the cadge.

I started with a betting bank of £500 way back in 2001.

I give you a £1000 bank to bet with.
I offer 11/10 about heads and 10/11 about tails on a unbiased spin of a coin.
How would you play over 100 spins?
And what shoud be your expected profit in theory over 100 spins backing heads each time?

Whilst I would never bet on the horses, I used to make guaranteed profits using arbitrage bets and the generous free bets. Unfortunately the bookies hate losing and I eventually got banned or restricted by virtually every bookie. Sometimes the speed of ban suggested that the bookies pass details of arbitrage betters to each other.
What really surprised me was often the bookies made money out of the losing side of the arbitrage bet whilst my profit was made on Betfair yet they still eventually stopped my placing bets with them!

I'll admit I have almost zero knowledge of betting. Who do your winnings come from when you use Betfair? Is it the bookies or other gamblers?

The winnings come from other punters who are laying the horses.
You can back a horse to win or back a horse to lose (laying).
I do both so will back what I think the odds are value and also lay when the odds I reckon are too low.

Not on horse racing but I’ve consistently beat the bookies over the last six years.

Predominately on football and generally a few 5 team treble accumulators which means you normally return your stake with three winners and in profit if four or all five come in.

I’m really quite small stakes but it gives me a bit of fun and I always record my bets and only really look at the percentage return rather than cash won. I get my kicks from being up over the season.

If anyone wants a rather sobering read on some eye watering amounts gambled and how it can all go bad have a look at Tony10 - The postman who gambled £10,000,000.

Cheers for that...I've just ordered the book.

Hope you enjoy it.
If you do, Harry Findlay - Gambling for life is also worth a read too.

Cheers Bazil. Ordered Keith Gillespie's Autobiography yesterday aswell...How Not to be a Football Millionaire.

bit like all those free bets you could once get playing bingo on line. they seem to have all dried up now by the types like a lad who worked in an arcade down seaton did and made a bit on them. they know that plenty will use the system and never get hooked like they want them to do. it does seem very odd though when people do play traditional bingo somewhere that they do win first time out. know i did but find it better to call the numbers and observe nowadays.