The Poolie Bunker

After each game the spreadsheet will be updated so we can track Pools's progress over the season.

Hi Stocksfield.
I may sound a bit thick here, but I don't understand how it works, is it possible for you to explain this in layman's terms?

Thanks for your reply, yes hopefully I can!

Each game, I work out the chances of Pools winning, the chances of Pools losing and the chances of the draw.

So say for example, I think Pools have a 50% chance of winning a match, 25% chance of losing and 25% chance of winning.

I then work out what are the expected points to be gained from that match taking into account the chances of Pools winning and drawing.

So the % chance of a win multipled by 3 points then we add the % chance of a draw multiplied by 1 point and we get the expected points from that game.

So in the example, we get 50% of 3 plus 25% of 1 which gives an expected points from that game as 1.75.

I have split the spreadsheet into home, away and total points, expected and actual.
And then used a formula from these expected points and the actual gained points to calculate what will be the final points home, away and the total.

At the moment from these 2 matches Pools are expected to finish the season on around 62.44 points.
This will change from game to game and will give a good indication if Pools are doing well or not!

Hopefully that explains it in a way you can understand.

So far so good after 2 matches, predicted total points, 2.88, Pools have 4.
Now our attentions turn to the away match at Altrincham...

Thanks--are these your predictions or the bookies odds of each result?

Before each match, I come up with my own percentages for Pools winning, drawing and losing.

A very good result away to Altrincham puts Pools well ahead of the predicted points expected after 3 games.
I am impressed with the 3 clean sheets.
Pools are now on for a predicted play off place with 70 points.
Home to Woking on Saturday is next...

Going Underground.

Spreadsheet updated, a few tweaks to the formula used for season totals
Will be happy with a point away to Southend.

And a well earned point away to Southend so it proved.
2 home matches coming up...

A tricky game coming up against Boreham Wood.
I'll take remaining unbeaten come full time, or how about Pools sneak a narrow win!

Well it was a tricky game and Pools are still unbeaten!
Boston at home next...

2 points dropped against Boston for sure!

Pools will do well to get anything out of the Forest Green match.

We are a couple of points ahead of schedule, and still on for a play off place.
A long way to go and we need better attacking options!

As predicted, Pools first loss and our attack exposed for what it is, toothless!

3 points from the last 4 games has left Pools with a 'just outside of the play offs' season prediction.
We need some new blood up front for Saturday as we need to start scoring goals!

Expected Points 13.51, Actual Points 14.

Pools in a bit of a freefall but we must keep faith.
Pools have a chance to put things right, away to Gateshead, a match which Pools have more than a good chance of winning.

3 points added after a good win at Gateshead, we must do the same home to Tamworth, before tackling Carlisle and then York.
On target for the play offs still!

Tamworth - another tough game, can Pools score again and win!

Tamworth and Carlisle results updated.
York strong favourites to win on Saturday, can Pools somehow get something fron the game!

Onto Sutton away and a match Pools ought to win!!!

I've amended the Predicted Full Season Home, Away and Total Points with a more accurate formula which should prove to be spot on as the season progresses. Pools are currently on for a finish of 65.74 points which would be outside of the play offs. 1 win from our last 10 has seen Pools plummet down the table. Can they stop the rot!!!

Pools search for their next win goes on (1 win in 11 league games), next match home to Solihull Moors.

If we can win 2 home games in a row (we did it first 2 home matches of this season) by beating Morecambe next, we will be on track with our expected points haul so far.

A win needed at Halifax to get Pools back on track. Unlikely or likely?!?!

Feels like a draw to me.

Well Pools did the unlikely and got the 3 point at Halifax!
Which puts Pools exactly more or less where they should be, on 26 points after 18 games, outside a play off place.

Home to Wealdstone next, we need to improve our points at home, a tough game no doubt on Saturday, a big test for the team and the manager!