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 Post subject: Our True Position
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:04 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:34 am
Posts: 35
I don't know about you but I can't get me head around what 'games in hand' really mean, especially on a maudlin Friday night before another away defeat / chance to earn valuable points.

So to help my understanding as the drinks flow I thought I'd pretend all League Two teams had played 31 games, the same as us. Let's see how deep in the mire we really are!

Here it is then, a table based on current points per game (PPG) multiplied by 31. Apologies for the crap formatting but I hope you get the gist. In this fairy-tale scenario we are about three points adrift, with 15 games left.

Not sure whether this has improved my mood tonight


Team / PPG / Weighted Points (31 Games)

Leyton Orient 2.09 65
Stevenage 1.97 61
Northampton Town 1.73 54
Carlisle United 1.68 52
Bradford City 1.66 51
Mansfield Town 1.63 51
Stockport County 1.60 50
Salford City 1.58 49
Doncaster Rovers 1.53 48
Walsall 1.43 44
Sutton United 1.42 44
Swindon Town 1.40 43
AFC Wimbledon 1.37 42
Tranmere Rovers 1.32 41
Barrow 1.32 41
Grimsby Town 1.22 38
Crewe Alexandra 1.21 37
Newport County 1.14 35
Colchester United 1.09 34
Harrogate Town 0.97 30
Gillingham 0.93 29
Crawley Town 0.93 29
Hartlepool United 0.84 26
Rochdale 0.68 21


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:51 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:50 am
Posts: 2309
Pools & Rochdale must be strong as we are holding every other team up!

:wink:


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:11 am 
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Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:34 pm
Posts: 3711
Sloop wrote:
I don't know about you but I can't get me head around what 'games in hand' really mean, especially on a maudlin Friday night before another away defeat / chance to earn valuable points.

So to help my understanding as the drinks flow I thought I'd pretend all League Two teams had played 31 games, the same as us. Let's see how deep in the mire we really are!

Here it is then, a table based on current points per game (PPG) multiplied by 31. Apologies for the crap formatting but I hope you get the gist. In this fairy-tale scenario we are about three points adrift, with 15 games left.

Not sure whether this has improved my mood tonight


Team / PPG / Weighted Points (31 Games)

Leyton Orient 2.09 65
Stevenage 1.97 61
Northampton Town 1.73 54
Carlisle United 1.68 52
Bradford City 1.66 51
Mansfield Town 1.63 51
Stockport County 1.60 50
Salford City 1.58 49
Doncaster Rovers 1.53 48
Walsall 1.43 44
Sutton United 1.42 44
Swindon Town 1.40 43
AFC Wimbledon 1.37 42
Tranmere Rovers 1.32 41
Barrow 1.32 41
Grimsby Town 1.22 38
Crewe Alexandra 1.21 37
Newport County 1.14 35
Colchester United 1.09 34
Harrogate Town 0.97 30
Gillingham 0.93 29
Crawley Town 0.93 29
Hartlepool United 0.84 26
Rochdale 0.68 21


I wonder what your mood will be like at 5 o'clock tomorrow?


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:58 am 
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Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:22 am
Posts: 223
I've always thought that if a team near the top of a division has games in hand, then there's a good chance that those games will convert into points.
If it's a team near the bottom , then that just means your goal difference is going to get worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 1:46 am 
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Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:34 pm
Posts: 3711
Our Younguns Dad wrote:
I've always thought that if a team near the top of a division has games in hand, then there's a good chance that those games will convert into points.
If it's a team near the bottom , then that just means your goal difference is going to get worse.


Or you could check the WLD stats for the last five or six games and that would give you a more realistic idea of what the future holds for whichever team is of interest. Of course I admit that there is no such thing as 100% certainty in sport what with injuries, manager sackings, transfers in and out etc but looking at a teams form for the last five games is generally (not always) a useful guide as to how they get on in their next five. Out of Pools last five they have won 1, drawn 1 lost 3. Out of 15 points on offer they got 4. Not good enough to keep us in the League. Only Rochdale have a worse record.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 3:51 am 
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Joined: Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:35 pm
Posts: 1126
Yep on current form second bottom seems about right


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:31 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:18 pm
Posts: 36416
Let’s just hope it’s wrong…this is like falling and trying to get the parachute to open.

_________________
It’s what he does….. he’s a terrier.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:17 am 
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Joined: Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:35 pm
Posts: 511
Snowy wrote:
Let’s just hope it’s wrong…this is like falling and trying to get the parachute to open.


Or the parachute has opened but is tangled with Rochdale’s


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:59 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:22 pm
Posts: 18947
probebly even bought that on the cheap or got it loaned to them.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:03 am 
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Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:18 pm
Posts: 36416
Or we were promised a top quality parachute and settled for a reconditioned charity shop one….dated Arnhem 1944.

_________________
It’s what he does….. he’s a terrier.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:42 am 
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Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:50 am
Posts: 2309
On that subject do we get a parachute payment if relegated into the National League?


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:56 am 
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Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:13 pm
Posts: 6689
Critical Thinking wrote:
On that subject do we get a parachute payment if relegated into the National League?



If we do it won,t be spent on the Playing staff, Ground or the pitch.


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 Post subject: Re: Our True Position
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:40 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:34 pm
Posts: 3711
Critical Thinking wrote:
On that subject do we get a parachute payment if relegated into the National League?


I believe relegated teams get a parachute payment for the first year and then they are on National League financial arrangements.


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