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 Post subject: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:38 pm 
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http://www.hartlepool.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=94949

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With news stories being few and far between over the holiday season, Vital Hartlepool has compiled some stats from our season so far.

Pools have now played 24 games and gained 29 points, at the same point in the relegation season of 2005/06 we had 30 points but a slightly worse goal difference.

At this point in the season he had picked up 7 points in his last 7 away games Danny Wilson's side have collected no points in the last 7 away games.

If we were to have a similar end to the season and pick up 29 points in the remaining 22 games we would have a final total of 58. We had 50 in the season we went down and if compare this to the last 3 league one seasons we would be clear of relegation

In 2004/05 we would have finished in 16th position with 7 points between us and the final relegation spot. In 2005/06 this would have gave us a 15th place finish, six points from the drop zone. Last season we would have finished 17th, 11 points from the final relegation place.

While some of that may not make nice reading, it is highly unlikely that we would go down if we had a second half of the season similar to the first half.

This is using a rough prediction based on the season so far but if we look at the form tables based on our last 8 games, where we have won just twice and lost 4 times, things look much worse. Our current run of 1 point per game would leave us on 51 points, just one more than we were relegated with but this would have kept us up by 4 points last season. Looking further back this points total would have seen us finish outside the relegation places in the last 5 seasons but soemtimes only on goal difference.

These results also don't take into account the quality of opposition, we have already faced high flyers Leeds, Leyton Orient and Carlisle twice and have yet to play strugglers Cheltenham and Northampton.

We have also visited all the 'top teams' and the only side we have to visit in the top 8 is Walsall.

We have a much easier run of fixtures coming up, we face just 3 games (Doncaster, Southend twice) against teams in the top half in our next 12 matches and we have 7 games against the teams below us.

This upcoming run of games will be key, at the end of the season we face Nottingham Forest and Swansea at home and have tough trips to Brighton, Bristol Rovers and Walsall in the last 6 games.

If results improve in the next few weeks we'll take a look at the chances of us reaching the play-offs but for now you can sleep easy, we're heading for somewhere between mid table mediocrity and narrow survivors unless our results take a upwards, or downwards, turn...


So much for the doom and gloom crowd, we're not going down...we're just going to flirt with the bottom 4 for the rest of the season before surviving by the slightest of margins. :grin:

Happy New Year

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:44 pm 
Just one small point, most people regard the 2004/2005 season as the greatest in the clubs history culminating in the Play Off final at Cardiff plus we nearly reached 5th round of the cup, I've never heard it referred to as the 'relegation season' :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:46 pm 
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PJ_Poolie wrote:
Just one small point, most people regard the 2004/2005 season as the greatest in the clubs history culminating in the Play Off final at Cardiff plus we nearly reached 5th round of the cup, I've never heard it referred to as the 'relegation season' :roll:


typo :uhoh: now edited

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:41 pm 
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Statistics..... :roll: .....here we go, relying on the unfounded theory that because something happened once, it will probably occur again.... er, .... not necessarily. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:50 pm 
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Snowy wrote:
Statistics..... :roll: .....here we go, relying on the unfounded theory that because something happened once, it will probably occur again.... er, .... not necessarily. :roll:



Yeah like just because Wilson got us out of the shit last season doesn't mean to say he will do it this season. sadx


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:52 pm 
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He did indeed...... but if you fall in the sea once and get rescued, it doesn't follow that the same thing will happen if you fall in again.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:17 pm 
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MadJohn wrote:
Maybe a sign of how unrealistic some expectations were to start with. Surely most of us have spent the whole season looking at the two gaps between 6th/us/21st. confised


Every week!

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:28 pm 
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ADG wrote:
And I say again...........WALSALL are doing ok. :evil:

What have they got that we havent then?


an S in their name?

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:33 pm 
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Mister Ed wrote:
ADG wrote:
And I say again...........WALSALL are doing ok. :evil:

What have they got that we havent then?


an S in their name?


We used to have one.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:35 pm 
ADG wrote:
And I say again...........WALSALL are doing ok. :evil:

What have they got that we havent then?


Only 8 more points which is 6th place, I wouldn't rule us finishing above them yet there is LONG way to go this season and things could still go very much either way or stay similar!

We are playing nowhere near as poorly as the relegation season and we did actually play some really good stuff on New Years Day in an attacking sense. It's been fine margins but you'd think we are due a good run like Walsall are having now.

Oh and by the way Walsall fans were having similar hissy fits about 14 games ago, I know we have been frustrating but we can turn this into a decent season still confised


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:37 pm 
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PJ_Poolie wrote:
We are playing nowhere near as poorly as the relegation season and we did actually play some really good stuff on New Years Day in an attacking sense.


But if the defence is going to let soft goals in every week from now til the end of the season...

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:39 pm 
Mr Ripper wrote:
PJ_Poolie wrote:
We are playing nowhere near as poorly as the relegation season and we did actually play some really good stuff on New Years Day in an attacking sense.


But if the defence is going to let soft goals in every week from now til the end of the season...


If we defend like we did at Carlisle we are totally fooked!

But you'd like to think won't defend like that again for years.


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:40 pm 
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PJ_Poolie wrote:
Mr Ripper wrote:
PJ_Poolie wrote:
We are playing nowhere near as poorly as the relegation season and we did actually play some really good stuff on New Years Day in an attacking sense.


But if the defence is going to let soft goals in every week from now til the end of the season...


If we defend like we did at Carlisle we are totally fooked!

But you'd like to think won't defend like that again for years.


But our defence has been gash for most of the season.

What gives you hope that it will change overnight if the same personnel are employed?

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:42 pm 
[/quote]

But our defence has been gash for most of the season.

What gives you hope that it will change overnight if the same personnel are employed?[/quote]

Surely we have to make changes after that debacle, I'd be amazed if we didn't that had to be a bit of a watershed for the season, plus Ben Clark is fit again.


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:45 pm 
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Clark is quality, our best defender bar none.

Nelson plays better when Clark is beside him.

Elliott is no good at left back but Humphreys is playing excellently in midfield so who else can play left back?

McCunnie is our only decent option at right back but Wilson seems to have gone off him.

Budtz isn't good enough to get a game down the Rec and as long as he is in goal we'll concede more than we score regardless of who plays in front of him.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:47 pm 
We do need to replace Budtz big time. He quite simply isn't good enough. That's one area I hope is addressed in January.

If Wilson can't see that now I'm seriously worried.


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:48 pm 
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PJ_Poolie wrote:
We do need to replace Budtz big time. He quite simply isn't good enough. That's one area I hope is addressed in January.

If Wilson can't see that now I'm seriously worried.


Wilson hasn't been able to see it for months even though nearly everybody else has.

That is why I've been worried for a while.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:50 pm 
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ADG wrote:
And I say again...........WALSALL are doing ok. :evil:

What have they got that we havent then?


:sweeeet:

A solid defence is the key to our success.

Tommy Mooney and Ricketts are maturing nicely too, like a couple of vintage wines.


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:51 pm 
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PJ_Poolie wrote:


Oh and by the way Walsall fans were having similar hissy fits about 14 games ago, I know we have been frustrating but we can turn this into a decent season still


True, some but not all were moaning even before the season began!


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:52 pm 
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ADG wrote:
I havent rated Budtz all season..............sadly I havent seen lee Barrett play.

He cant be very good though if Wilson doesnt fancy him.................oh hang on though........... :uhoh: :evil:


clappp

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:57 pm 
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And if you lose when you think you've played well then the truth is that you're just not good enough.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:08 pm 
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MadJohn wrote:
Mr Ripper wrote:
And if you lose when you think you've played well then the truth is that you're just not good enough.


And again... if you win when you think you've played badly (as we have done a few times), is the truth that we are just not bad enough? confised sctatchinghead


Yes.

What's so confusing about that? sctatchinghead

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:48 pm 
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MadJohn wrote:
Northampton is a big game. Their form over the last dozen games is only slightly worse than ours. They are similarly placed and will see the game against us as a chance to pick up three points. A win for us would be massive.

However this is Pools, and more crucially, TYPICAL Pools right now, and as such we will lead 1-0 only to go on to lose 2-1 to a crap side, through two avoidable mistakes late in the second half. We will all be screaming for blood afterwards, as by then enough will have been enough.
The mistakes will be made by Nelson and Nolan.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:51 pm 
PJ_Poolie wrote:
We do need to replace Budtz big time. He quite simply isn't good enough. That's one area I hope is addressed in January.

If Wilson can't see that now I'm seriously worried.


Why address it in January....why not give the other Keeper a chance....he couldn't do any worse???? confised confised


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 Post subject: Re: Statistically we're not going down!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:15 pm 
MutleyRules wrote:
PJ_Poolie wrote:
We do need to replace Budtz big time. He quite simply isn't good enough. That's one area I hope is addressed in January.

If Wilson can't see that now I'm seriously worried.


Why address it in January....why not give the other Keeper a chance....he couldn't do any worse???? confised confised


Couldn't agree with you more but it appears that isn't going to happen.


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