Panorama Tonight

[yloop]

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255147479466565636?s=21

This graph is horrific, and although the European countries do curve down it's likely to be that the baseline average increases due to incoming tourism and people dying there.

Kind of puts to bed the "loads of people die of flu every year" argument though.

[yloop]

This graph is horrific, and although the European countries do curve down it's likely to be that the baseline average increases due to incoming tourism and people dying there.

Kind of puts to bed the "loads of people die of flu every year" argument though.

Indeed. We had Toby Young last week trying to downplay the whole crisis by pointing out that more people had died by the same point in 2018 than in 2020. True, but at the same time horribly disingenuous.

Obviously twitter exploded with people not understanding baseline average comparison. "But spain and italy haven't decreased that much, fake news" etc.

A lot of the numbers year on year will include winter flu deaths, which we're still very likely to see towards the end of the year as we did at the beginning (above the average). Towards summer our average deaths would drop I'd assume which will make this graph look even worse as we go.

It's also worth noting this is just England.

[Javed Miandad Stance]

Why keep telling us we are winning the war, or even mentioning the war ? Why keep passing it off as a success ?
We were told keeping deaths below 20,000 would be a good outcome. That isn't happening. Hancock said 100,000 tests a day by end of April, Johnson said 250,000 a day by May. We are nowhere near that.

[Javed Miandad Stance]

NHS not at full capacity but only cos they are leaving old people to die in their thousands in care homes.

[yloop]

NHS not at full capacity but only cos they are leaving old people to die in their thousands in care homes.

Irrefutable, but we all hate the tories so make this shit up.

[Soma]

In my view and again not trying to defend government here but there are some key points to bear in mind. SARS and MERS never made it over here so why would there have been any reason in Jan/Feb to think this would and they were the most recent examples of anything like this. Nobody has ever seen it before so how can you judge it, how quickly and easily it could spread. The lower death rates in China could have lead people into a false sense of security. I have no idea why China was lower, could be they lied, could be that there is some immunity anyway to corona viruses as they've gone round before but not as severe as this one...who knows. Given it takes 25 days from infection to being in ICU by the time people really realised what had happened it was already almost too late. Even when italy took off that was 14 days before the UK, thats still 11 days of no action. PPE is in short supply and this should have been acted on quicker, especially with such high global demand, someone has to lose out and we have. I think those things drove some really bad decisions which should be questioned. I don't think any governement would have dealt well with it, but yes lives could proabably have been saved. Equally there are things we can't change. We have a densely populated country...and that's fine before people think that's a brexit type thing. We have high obesity and a certain amount of the population living longer but not living well which really isn't going to end well for a pandemic. Close proximity to other people that are at risk has been our ultimte downfall and only complete and utter isolation would have saved them, which just isn't realistic in the world.

So is governement incompitent. Probably yes. When you take into account the above, it was never going to go well whoever was in charge, especially as any govt would have followed "scientific advice". There's nothing wrong with the scientific advice either, they're just as much in the dark too and making the best choices they can too. Nobody has ever seen this before. So i don't think a political argument is appropriate at this time and there are a hell of a lot of factors which could change the outcome of all of this. But that's just my thoughts/views and i'm not likely to be right

Thanks for that, that's the most reasoned reply I've seen in weeks. I do agree that there are certain factors outside of the government's control, such as population density and general health etc.

I'll never understand the time that was wasted in the beginning of this outbreak though. We had over a week head start on Italy and Spain, and while hundreds died in their hospitals every day we were still going to the football, the pubs and Cheltenham Festival was still going ahead. I don't think the damage that carrying on for that week as normal can be understated. In an exponentially growing virus, we provided ample opportunity for it spread and it has and will cost lives and is probably the biggest factor behind us likely being the worst affected country in Europe. More than PPE shortages, more than ICU capacity and more than the availability of ventilators. The government simply allowed the virus to spread unchecked and we are seeing the results of this right now. That is indefensible and borderline criminally negligent for me.

[yloop]

Thanks for that, that's the most reasoned reply I've seen in weeks. I do agree that there are certain factors outside of the government's control, such as population density and general health etc.

I'll never understand the time that was wasted in the beginning of this outbreak though. We had over a week head start on Italy and Spain, and while hundreds died in their hospitals every day we were still going to the football, the pubs and Cheltenham Festival was still going ahead. I don't think the damage that carrying on for that week as normal can be understated. In an exponentially growing virus, we provided ample opportunity for it spread and it has and will cost lives and is probably the biggest factor behind us likely being the worst affected country in Europe. More than PPE shortages, more than ICU capacity and more than the availability of ventilators. The government simply allowed the virus to spread unchecked and we are seeing the results of this right now. That is indefensible and borderline criminally negligent for me.

That's the worst thing for me, we had time. That's where the inquiry should start. Economy over life will be the take home from this. As an island nation, and a relatively small one at that, we should have had this cut off at the source.

[Javed Miandad Stance]

Like the Yanks we laughed it off and assumed a herd immunity approach would work as it was only the flu and old people were expendable. We only changed tack when the full scale of the death toll was explained to Dom and Boris.
That is all on record but like I said a public enquiry will be shelved until everyone involved is dead or long retired.

[born toulouse]

Good to see Jhumps back. We need to hear more from middle managers working in comms, specially the sort who were arguing that a degree of privatisation was good for the NHS a few months back.

[yloop]

Good to see Jhumps back. We need to hear more from middle managers working in comms, specially the sort who were arguing that a degree of privatisation was good for the NHS a few months back.

I think we have a good mix on here, we've got statisticians, people in different countries, scientists, a lawyer, ex military, fitness gurus, management in various sectors, racists, caravan dwellers...

Makes for good debate usually and a wide range of views.

[born toulouse]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

[yloop]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

I think He's Ritchie Humphreys dad.

[yloop]

Richie Humphreys doesn't have a dad. He walked out of a cave in Sheffield at year 0.

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk

In that case, we're all doomed.

[Jhumps84]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

All need views need representing. Even middle managers. In real life my title has director in it so I’ve taken a step down in my views it seems. I need to be more directorial clearly.

And yes, I still think private elements works in a mix but not full privatisation. Already there in a lot of it without us noticing...but that’s for another day.

Finally I’m Ritchie’s less handsome cousin, but rest assured a pools fan.

[yloop]

I'm pretty sure "Traffic Director" is just a posh title for "sign".

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He’s an arrow.

[Jhumps84]

I'm pretty sure "Traffic Director" is just a posh title for "sign".

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk

He’s an arrow.

Slippery road

[yloop]

I'm pretty sure "Traffic Director" is just a posh title for "sign".

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk

He’s an arrow.

Slippery road

Tory rule?

[Jhumps84]

I'm pretty sure "Traffic Director" is just a posh title for "sign".

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk

He’s an arrow.

Slippery road

Tory rule?

Whoever speaks most sense at the time, I’ve voted a number of ways

[Monkeybutt]

Do you really think we laughed it off or that we have a higher % of those in shallow end of the gene pool who continue to flout the instructions to stay at home rather than convoy down/up to places like Snowdon or the Lakes?

Has anybody noticed the guy who spends half the week in the lay-by in Newton Bewley in his caravan

[yloop]

Looking like around another 600 deaths today. Fast just be coming a number aren't they?

And a very well hidden wrong number at that.

Given that this is still only the number for hospital deaths, that is a depressingly high figure when you consider that we are three weeks past the peak.

The second wave is what frightens me most if I'm honest, complacency will be the biggest killer.

[yloop]

I'm just watching Panorama now. Can someone please explain which of these facts are leftist propaganda?

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The bits where the government can’t answer with a slogan.

[Watching from afar]

Any bit that attacks boris the butcher.

[born toulouse]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

All need views need representing. Even middle managers. In real life my title has director in it so I’ve taken a step down in my views it seems. I need to be more directorial clearly.

And yes, I still think private elements works in a mix but not full privatisation. Already there in a lot of it without us noticing...but that’s for another day.

Finally I’m Ritchie’s less handsome cousin, but rest assured a pools fan.

The heads of department at my kids' school are called Director of....just business speak for a middle manager isn't it? Even Senior Vice Presidents only have to be in charge of three or four people. All time record is a bloke I worked with who was self-employed but signed off all his emails as President of the company.

[Montpoolier]

Given that this is still only the number for hospital deaths, that is a depressingly high figure when you consider that we are three weeks past the peak.

I'm not even sure its right to say the UK is past the peak.
Past peak deaths, yes, and I hope it stays that way; but the daily new cases are on a very solid looking plateau.
It's not rocket science to know why. Ask people in retrospect and they'll probably say if only they'd done the damn quarantine properly we'd have suffered being shut up tighter if it meant being shut up for a month less.

[Jhumps84]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

All need views need representing. Even middle managers. In real life my title has director in it so I’ve taken a step down in my views it seems. I need to be more directorial clearly.

And yes, I still think private elements works in a mix but not full privatisation. Already there in a lot of it without us noticing...but that’s for another day.

Finally I’m Ritchie’s less handsome cousin, but rest assured a pools fan.

The heads of department at my kids' school are called Director of....just business speak for a middle manager isn't it? Even Senior Vice Presidents only have to be in charge of three or four people. All time record is a bloke I worked with who was self-employed but signed off all his emails as President of the company.

And? Your point is what and how is that relevant to me exactly? Or is there a particular problem you have with me for no real reason that you keep going on for? Is it just that you disagree with me, which is fine, it happens? I just don’t get the now third post about it...

[The Fat Man]

True, but some sort of interest in Pools usually helps to explain why they're here whereas Jhumps seems to be here to be the voice of middle managers. That's weird, I wouldn't want him banning or anything, it just seems odd that he bothers.

All need views need representing. Even middle managers. In real life my title has director in it so I’ve taken a step down in my views it seems. I need to be more directorial clearly.

And yes, I still think private elements works in a mix but not full privatisation. Already there in a lot of it without us noticing...but that’s for another day.

Finally I’m Ritchie’s less handsome cousin, but rest assured a pools fan.

The heads of department at my kids' school are called Director of....just business speak for a middle manager isn't it? Even Senior Vice Presidents only have to be in charge of three or four people. All time record is a bloke I worked with who was self-employed but signed off all his emails as President of the company.

And? Your point is what and how is that relevant to me exactly? Or is there a particular problem you have with me for no real reason that you keep going on for? Is it just that you disagree with me, which is fine, it happens? I just don’t get the now third post about it...

Er, he's making a joke. I know life's hard at the moment, but there seem to be too many obvious jokes missed at the moment.

[Javed Miandad Stance]

That's middle management for you mate. Zero sense of humour.

[The Fat Man]

That's middle management for you mate. Zero sense of humour.

[Soma]

Given that this is still only the number for hospital deaths, that is a depressingly high figure when you consider that we are three weeks past the peak.

I'm not even sure its right to say the UK is past the peak.
Past peak deaths, yes, and I hope it stays that way; but the daily new cases are on a very solid looking plateau.
It's not rocket science to know why. Ask people in retrospect and they'll probably say if only they'd done the damn quarantine properly we'd have suffered being shut up tighter if it meant being shut up for a month less.

Is it possible that the new cases appearing to be on a plateau are being affected by the increased capacity for testing? As the testing increases it stands to reason that more cases would be found and reported, whereas this wasn't the case a few weeks ago where the number of infected was likely materially understated.

I don't necessarily disagree with you by the way, it could well be the lockdown measures haven't been strict enough and that is why the new cases are not dropping. Just offering a possible alternative.

[Montpoolier]

Is it possible that the new cases appearing to be on a plateau are being affected by the increased capacity for testing?.

Well, here in Spain they ramped up testing big time a couple of weeks ago. We're talking about three times as many tests per head as in the UK.
There seemed to be an immediate surge in new cases but it lasted only a couple of days before the trend continued its way slowly downward.
Not sure you can infer a lot from that mind.

[RAY52]

Thanks for that, that's the most reasoned reply I've seen in weeks. I do agree that there are certain factors outside of the government's control, such as population density and general health etc.

I'll never understand the time that was wasted in the beginning of this outbreak though. We had over a week head start on Italy and Spain, and while hundreds died in their hospitals every day we were still going to the football, the pubs and Cheltenham Festival was still going ahead. I don't think the damage that carrying on for that week as normal can be understated. In an exponentially growing virus, we provided ample opportunity for it spread and it has and will cost lives and is probably the biggest factor behind us likely being the worst affected country in Europe. More than PPE shortages, more than ICU capacity and more than the availability of ventilators. The government simply allowed the virus to spread unchecked and we are seeing the results of this right now. That is indefensible and borderline criminally negligent for me.

That's the worst thing for me, we had time. That's where the inquiry should start. Economy over life will be the take home from this. As an island nation, and a relatively small one at that, we should have had this cut off at the source.

“We had the time”? “That’s where the enquiry should start” The enquiry should start at year 2010 when this incompetent shower took charge and almost destroyed the NHS. It sickens me now when these bastards are throwing ABout all these platitudes about the NHS, how great they are and how we owe our lives to them, not forgetting the cheering when they blocked a pay rise for the same nurses they are now applauding Etc. Etc. Whilst they are at it they should also not forget Cygnus, again incompetent bastards ignoring all comments and recommendations by The EXPERTS and refusing to publish their findings. They want stringing up EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM!!!