Chances of avoiding relegation

StocksfieldPoolie · **Joined:** Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:48 pm **Posts:** 324

Looking at the odds available for the matches on Saturday, the chances of Pools avoiding relegation are approx. as follows:

Hartlepool to win 22%
Hartlepool to draw 26%
Hartlepoool to lose 52%

Newport to win 50%
Newport to draw 26%
Newport to lose 24%

Out of the 9 different scenarios, only 2 will alllow Pools to move from 23rd to 22nd position.

These being:

Pools WIN, Newport DRAW
Pools WIN, Newport LOSE

The chances of a Pools WIN and a Newport DRAW are 22% x 26% which is 5.72%.
The chances of a Pools WIN and Newport LOSE are 22% x 24% which equals 5.28%.

Which gives Pools a 11% chance of avoiding relegation, however an 89% chance of being relegated.

Freaky Teeth · **Posted:** Mon May 01, 2017 1:15 pm

Chip Fireball wrote:

Currently 1/8 to get relegated with BET 365 so they put our chances at about 12%.

That's on the high side in my opinion. I put our chances closer to zero unless they reopen the transfer window during the week.

With the current clowns in charge that wouldn't make any difference. If fact the odds would go to 1/20 as we'd sell more players and Newport would buy.

StocksfieldPoolie · **Joined:** Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:48 pm **Posts:** 324

1.15 on Betfair for Pools to be relegated. So with commission rate say at 5%, gives Pools a 87.53% chance of being relegated.

Chances of avoiding relegation

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