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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:17 pm 
I suspect thats because the only issue that affects the good folk of Hartlepool is Brexit. As we all know, everyones life in Hartlepool will be all sweetness and light as long as Brexit is delivered. We are nothing without Brexit.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:19 pm 
I also think you are under some illusion that all tories care only abut brexit, so will jump onto the Brexit party if there is no tory candidate. I am not sure that will happen in a lot of cases.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:30 pm 
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Mr Irrelevant wrote:
As you know, there was no Brexit party in 2017 but in the Euro election the result in Hartlepool was:

The Brexit Party 9,446
Labour 2,465
Liberal Democrats 1,729
Conservative 910
UKIP 1,586
Green Party 980
Change UK 793

Hartlepool was a massive Brexit voting area and in a GE you cannot discount the above votes. Given the position of Labour in terms of the referendum, it would be a Brexit MP in the town by some margin.


You can't use a euro election to draw conclusions from and you know it, they might get in but you cannot say with such certainty.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:34 pm 
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Are you seriously suggesting that this general election won’t be pure Brexit?


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:36 pm 
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You are pure brexit


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:39 pm 
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Wow, an incisive point.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:43 pm 
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Of course it will be based around brexit but you are saying its a certainty which it clearly isn't. The euro elections had significantly less turn out for example.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:44 pm 
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Thought Johnson's body language
at 6 was so different to his usual arrogance.......with him being PM comes responsibility something he has never experienced. A get me out of here moment I think.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:46 pm 
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The stats are so confused anything could happen come an election.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:55 am 
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Snowy wrote:
Blair would fit seamlessly into any Party you care to choose.

or you could put it that blair would fit well into any party that he,d choose.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:41 am 
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On the subject of Blair, is he right about how Labour should respond if Boris the bullshitter asks the commons for an election?

Clearly he would want to fight it as a Brexit election with him leading the Tories as the 'no ifs no buts' Leave party. His endless spending promises show that he knows the Tories record on austerity means they can't win on that score so he is banking on being seen as the saviour of Brexit.

If Labour voted against an election he'd have to follow any parliamentary votes for delay requests or end up in court/endless legal wranglings. There would probably be an election in the end but he'd be looking like damaged goods by then, not a good thing when your key strength is promoting yourself as a decisive new broom.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:03 am 
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Blair and his fan club in parliament are for preserving the status quo at all costs - get an extension to Article 50 till January 2020, find as many ways as possible to not leave by agreement in that time and instead arrange a ''People's Vote', win that for Remain, sit out the remainder of this fixed term parliament, win an election in 2021 by a new centrist leader of the Labour Party.

There's as many ifs and buts around that scenario as as any other. Last night Jezza sounded determined to fight an election as soon as possible if Johnson puts it to a vote, but I don't think Labour MPs will let him.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:13 am 
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That's a bit of a high risk strategy though isn't it? They don't seem to have realised that a 'People's Vote' might say leave or that the Labour Party membership isn't likely to choose a centrist candidate even if Corbyn stands down.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:57 am 
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David Conn’s take on proceedings, in a fair World this will happen;

“Jeremy Corbyn & his advisors seem to have worked out last night that they don’t have to agree to an election, meaning Johnson and Cummings can’t have one; if no deal is also blocked, Johnson will then be stuck, needing to find an actual solution to the UK crisis he has caused.”


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:47 pm 
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Mr Irrelevant wrote:
Are you seriously suggesting that this general election won’t be pure Brexit?


Mmm. May called the last one on Brexit alone, to make sure she could get the job done. Remind me how that one went again?

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:58 pm 
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Tory MP Philip Lee defects to Liberals and govt has lost working majority.

The start of many?

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:10 pm 
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Watching Parliament live at mo.........this is pure theatre well worth a watch.
There is a bird to the left of the PM with a cracking pair of pins.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:46 pm 
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Bluestreak wrote:
Watching Parliament live at mo........this is pure theatre well worth a watch.
There is a bird to the left of the PM with a cracking pair of pins.



Must you objectify women even at this moment of grave national crisis? #metwofrontteeth


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:53 pm 
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"Crisis what crises"

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:11 pm 
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It Doesn't matter what anyone thinks. It will be King John (the arrogant) of Edgware, who decides the outcome of Brexit, and the fate of the UK. :roll: :roll:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:29 pm 
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Make no mistake they know exactly what they are doing its all about the end game that matters.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:27 am 
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Attachment:
Mogg.jpg


And people say Corbyn is unelectable? Can't see how anybody would even consider voting for a party that is the political home of this fucker.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:58 am 
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Absolutely repulsive.

Entitlement and contempt embodied in a single image.

Quite simply the worst government ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:42 am 
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Considering the current state of the Tory party, Labour should be romping ahead and should be dead certs in the next general election but they are just ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls. So why aren't they romping it ?????
Answer= Corbyn.
Why would anyone vote for a party that Rees-Mogg is a member of???? Answer=Corbyn.
John Mann, Labour MP said this morning that Corbyn was holding the Labour party back and that getting rid of Corbyn was the key to success. I would be slightly cautious on that as I want to see who they replace him with. Another Marxist would be like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
I live in what is called the soviet socialist republic of South Yorkshire and even staunch Labour supporters readily agree Corbyn is holding the party back.
If Labour do as badly as the polls suggest then Corbyn has to go.
A golden opportunity is beckoning but people don't want the extreme right or the extreme left.
The Lib Dems look like doing a lot better this time round, which is a huge pointer to a Coalition but this time they won't be as gullible as they were in 2010.
A right royal mess is an understatement of Biblical proportions.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:57 am 
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I think a lot of people are expecting a conclusion to Brexit however this plays out over the forthcoming months.
But as a member of the Lords said last night "brexit will never go away."
He could well be right as people will continue to push for closer or a more distant relationship with the EU.
Politics will still be dominated by this issue for many years to come.
A smokescreen for austerity.

Thank you Dodgy Dave and the trail of shit that came after you.

The good news is that the cricket is on.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:13 am 
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Wonder when/if David Miliband will reappear?

Watching BJ on PMQ.........Totally incoherent.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:12 pm 
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born toulouse wrote:
Attachment:
Mogg.jpg


And people say Corbyn is unelectable? Can't see how anybody would even consider voting for a party that is the political home of this fucker.


While i'm not going to argue about his politics etc here, what i will say about this photo is that in fact and most likely he is slouching to listen to the speakers in the back of the chairs. The house of commons is notorious for it's poor acoustics and if a debate is happening with other MPs shouting and heckling over the top of who is speaking you will struggle to hear whats going on, especially if you are keen to hear what is being said. The speakers are at a bit of a funny height as the chairs don't go all the way up to your head, so the only way to listen is to do this sometimes. So before we all get outraged about a photo with no context, have that fact above in mind. But feel free to bang on about his politics...


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:45 pm 
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The first thing I do when confronted with poor acoustics is slouch in a chair and close my eyes.

An untrained eye would think I was asleep.

Never fails.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:12 pm 
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I always sing that classic about the stag hunting middle eastern gentleman who wrote Mary Poppins, ' Doha deer, a female deer la la la la la la la bbolt

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:15 pm 
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Jhumps84 wrote:
And people say Corbyn is unelectable? Can't see how anybody would even consider voting for a party that is the political home of this fucker.


While i'm not going to argue about his politics etc here, what i will say about this photo is that in fact and most likely he is slouching to listen to the speakers in the back of the chairs. The house of commons is notorious for it's poor acoustics and if a debate is happening with other MPs shouting and heckling over the top of who is speaking you will struggle to hear whats going on, especially if you are keen to hear what is being said. The speakers are at a bit of a funny height as the chairs don't go all the way up to your head, so the only way to listen is to do this sometimes. So before we all get outraged about a photo with no context, have that fact above in mind. But feel free to bang on about his politics...[/quote]

You don't think he was taking the piss? He's never behaved like that before and they haven't changed the speakers recently. It ws also a comparatively quiet spell as the amount of space available shows.

I get the impression he just got over-excited after getting a huge promotion thanks to the Bullingdon Club take over at the top of the Tory party. Couldn't restrain himself and showed his arrogance and disdain for the 'oiks' on the opposition benches.

The speech he chose to make showed similar traits. Even though most people would agree that the country is in a serious situation it was basically aimed at providing amusement for his right wing chums and showing off how clever he is. Hard to blame that on the speakers but I'm sure there'll be people online trying to think of a similar daft excuse.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:23 pm 
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Just had a look and although a couple of right wing papers like the Evening Standard are coming up with the speaker excuse others are pointing out that his head is nowhere near the speakers which aren't at the end of the bench.

One bloke asked him on Twitter:

JRM: It’s typically trivial of social media.
Me: Were you lying back, trying to hear?
JRM: Sitting comfortably. There’s nothing in the rules about sitting comfortably.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:39 pm 
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Sitting comfortably? :oops:
Attachment:
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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:17 pm 
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Bluestreak wrote:
Sitting comfortably? :oops:
Attachment:
mogg.jpg


Sorry, that just makes me feel queasy....


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:28 pm 
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Cowabunga...!


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:43 pm 
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born toulouse wrote:
Just had a look and although a couple of right wing papers like the Evening Standard are coming up with the speaker excuse others are pointing out that his head is nowhere near the speakers which aren't at the end of the bench.

One bloke asked him on Twitter:

JRM: It’s typically trivial of social media.
Me: Were you lying back, trying to hear?
JRM: Sitting comfortably. There’s nothing in the rules about sitting comfortably.


And of course the left wing press are snarling and foaming at the mouth too, it's how it works, on both sides. You won't see anything negative about Labour in the Mirror for example. My point is simply don't go bonkers about a photo without looking at some of the reasons why it may be so. I'm sure he's loving the attention of it but fact is he is closer to the speakers in the chairs so he could hear better too. It's very easy to say he doesn't care etc fits with the narrative of this photo, but there may be more to it. now whether you think he's an arse due to his policies and whatever, yeah go nuts


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:55 pm 
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Apologies Mr Salopian hope you weren't having lunch.

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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:36 pm 
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Jhumps84 wrote:

And of course the left wing press are snarling and foaming at the mouth too, it's how it works, on both sides. You won't see anything negative about Labour in the Mirror for example. My point is simply don't go bonkers about a photo without looking at some of the reasons why it may be so. I'm sure he's loving the attention of it but fact is he is closer to the speakers in the chairs so he could hear better too. It's very easy to say he doesn't care etc fits with the narrative of this photo, but there may be more to it. now whether you think he's an arse due to his policies and whatever, yeah go nuts


I understand about press bias, exactly why I checked to see if any of the right wing press were giving the excuse you mentioned any credence. Which they were. I then looked at whether the excuse stands up to any scrutiny- it doesn't.

His head isn't near the speakers, they aren't at the end of the bench. The excuse only works if he listens with his knees. If that isn't evidence enough to dismiss the idea look at what he said himself. When he was asked directly whether he was slouching in order to hear better he said he wasn't, he was just sitting comfortably which isn't against the rules.

There really isn't any more to it. Can't understand why you'd 'go bonkers' repeating daft excuses that he doesn't even support himself.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:46 pm 
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born toulouse wrote:
I understand about press bias, exactly why I checked to see if any of the right wing press were giving the excuse you mentioned any credence. Which they were. I then looked at whether the excuse stands up to any scrutiny- it doesn't.

His head isn't near the speakers, they aren't at the end of the bench. The excuse only works if he listens with his knees. If that isn't evidence enough to dismiss the idea look at what he said himself. When he was asked directly whether he was slouching in order to hear better he said he wasn't, he was just sitting comfortably which isn't against the rules.

There really isn't any more to it. Can't understand why you'd 'go bonkers' repeating daft excuses that he doesn't even support himself.


Errrr, yeah i'm not going bonkers, just saying before putting images up like this, maybe think a little more about why. I've no doubt he's done it for some reaction, but yeah with speakers blaring out at that level he may not need to put his ear right next to it to get an advantage. Also not repeating "daft" excuses. Equally it's not even daft it's fact, that's why there are speakers in there...Also if someone wants to vote for the party that's the "home of this fucker" it's up to them, same as anyone who wants to vote for Corbyn and what opposition think of them. But you can't use an image of him lying down to say Corbyn is more electable as a credible argument when you've said yourself he's done sod all wrong


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:53 pm 
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Maybe he'd taken a few Mogg-adons...?


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:13 pm 
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Jhumps84 wrote:


Errrr, yeah i'm not going bonkers, just saying before putting images up like this, maybe think a little more about why. I've no doubt he's done it for some reaction, but yeah with speakers blaring out at that level he may not need to put his ear right next to it to get an advantage. Also not repeating "daft" excuses. Equally it's not even daft it's fact, that's why there are speakers in there...Also if someone wants to vote for the party that's the "home of this fucker" it's up to them, same as anyone who wants to vote for Corbyn and what opposition think of them. But you can't use an image of him lying down to say Corbyn is more electable as a credible argument when you've said yourself he's done sod all wrong


I was just quoting you with the 'going bonkers', seemed like a funny phrase to use so I was gently taking the piss.

It is a very daft excuse indeed if the person involved doesn't even back it up. You should take your own advice on thinking before posting, maybe even try checking things. It took about two minutes to discover that the speakers aren't at the end of the bench, the chamber wasn't very busy and the debate wasn't noisy at that point. Another 30 seconds and I found him on Twitter dismissing the excuse himself

As far as not repeating it goes are you seriously claiming you made it up yourself and didn't read it elsewhere? Doesn't seem very likely.

I didn't say he'd done sod all wrong. I said that he said it wasn't against the rules. That's true but showing contempt like that is obviously a very wrong move for a politician from a background like his - opens him up to Tory toff jibes which will damage his party.

Finally, I didn't say people shouldn't be allowed to vote for whoever they choose. I expressed amazement that anybody does choose to vote for the Tories but that's a totally different thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:08 pm 
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I’ve just spent half an hour listening to a backbench Tory MP who’s name escapes me and Stephen Kinnock, both of whom were signatories to the amendment, putting forward an amendment designed to compromise and get the thing over the line. It was reasoned debate with reasonable points raised from all sides with courtesy. It was very different to PMQs.

I’ve come to the conclusion that if you blocked both front benches out this could be sorted out in a couple of days with the goodwill displayed in the debate.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:11 pm 
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I’ve worked for an MP, in parliament and for public affairs consultancies, so is that enough fact checking? I’ve now seen it said elsewhere but at the time, no I hadn’t seen it as an explanation it or indeed his own admission. Annoys me when members of the public have a go at MPs for no reason other than to push their own political agenda which is what I took issue with. I accept on this occasion he may have been a dick, but equally to use the picture to push your point of why people shouldn’t vote conservative, is a bit misleading. So have a go at him on policy, not because he’s laying around on a seat and then have a go at everyone who voted conservative based on that.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:35 pm 
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I know Ruth Smeeth quite well. She's the MP for Stoke on Trent and a Labour MP. Apart from seeing her very upset by the Labour anti-Semitism, I've seen her diary and I was amazed at how hard she works and how many hours she puts in. Most days are 5am until 9 or 10 pm plus weekend meetings and interviews.

Don't let anyone tell you they're in it for the perks or the money. She earns around £15 an hour by my reckoning. I'm sure there are MP's who line their pockets but I do believe that the majority are in it to serve

Along with the other stuff they do a lot of more mundane outings. I asked her to present a long service award at work for instance. She turned out and made the blokes day. Like I say, most MP's are hard working honest people who give a shit.

https://www.motuscommercials.co.uk/daf/ ... ommercials


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:51 pm 
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Go Ask Alice wrote:
Maybe he'd taken a few Mogg-adons...?


:laugh:


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:08 pm 
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Jhumps84 wrote:
I’ve worked for an MP, in parliament and for public affairs consultancies, so is that enough fact checking? I’ve now seen it said elsewhere but at the time, no I hadn’t seen it as an explanation it or indeed his own admission. Annoys me when members of the public have a go at MPs for no reason other than to push their own political agenda which is what I took issue with. I accept on this occasion he may have been a dick, but equally to use the picture to push your point of why people shouldn’t vote conservative, is a bit misleading. So have a go at him on policy, not because he’s laying around on a seat and then have a go at everyone who voted conservative based on that.


No, that isn't fact checking it's trying to use an 'impressive' cv to bluster your way out of a corner. Not unusual among the PR people I've met.

Lots of MPs work hard and mean well. I don't think Rees-Mogg does and the pic reflected that so why shouldn't I say so?&


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:14 pm 
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Bluestreak wrote:
Sitting comfortably? :oops:
Attachment:
mogg.jpg


Draw me like one of your french girls.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:19 pm 
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born toulouse wrote:
I quite like Corbyn and a lot of the criticism aimed at him is utter bollocks. .




Enough is enough,come on toulouse own up...Are you Owen Jones ??


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:49 pm 
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born toulouse wrote:

No, that isn't fact checking it's trying to use an 'impressive' cv to bluster your way out of a corner. Not unusual among the PR people I've met.

Lots of MPs work hard and mean well. I don't think Rees-Mogg does and the pic reflected that so why shouldn't I say so?&


Can you make one argument without being offensive to a person in it? Or is it easier just to lash out and blame everyone else? It is possible to construct arguments using bits of information rather than having a go at people...also public affairs is a bit different to PR.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:23 am 
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Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:27 pm
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Location: Another planet
Loid Blackwell wrote:



Enough is enough,come on toulouse own up...Are you Owen Jones ??


Considerably older and fatter I'm afraid.


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 Post subject: Re: Political prediction
PostPosted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:40 am 
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Jhumps84 wrote:
Can you make one argument without being offensive to a person in it? Or is it easier just to lash out and blame everyone else? It is possible to construct arguments using bits of information rather than having a go at people...also public affairs is a bit different to PR.


From my standpoint, he did make an argument using information. You guessed, and got it wrong.

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