Taking an average of the past seven season, 81 points tends to secure 3rd place and 71 puts you in 7th. The highest points totals for those positions are 84 and 74 respectively. Using the latter as failsafes. We need to average 1.83 points for automatic promotion and 1.61 for a play off place.

Thats the basis so where are we now. 1.52 points per game. Thats is 32 points from 21 games.

We have started badly but seem to have pulled it together of late so we'll keep track as the season progresses.

Required points per game (PPG)

Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.52

Variance

Automatic -0.31
Play offs -0.09

You're asking for trouble making statements like that, I promise you!

mr head where did you get your hands on our last year's family holiday snap?

www.google.com/images?q="parmo's family"

just like the FA cup.........

Update after Bury game. Our average is 1.65 points per game

Required points per game (PPG)

Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.52

Variance

Automatic - 0.18
Play offs +0.13

Here's another take on this points per game lark.

After 24 games this season we have 41 points

After 24 games in the season...
2004/2005 we had 39 points and finished 6th
2003/2004 we had 35 points and finished 6th
2002/2003 we had 47 points and finished 2nd
2001/2002 we had 32 points and finished 7th
2000/2001 we had 38 points and finished 4th
1999/2000 we had 39 points and finished 7th
1990/1991 we had 40 points and finished 3rd

(All our other high finishes were before the 3 point win was introduced.)

Which I guess augurs well for at least a play-off place.

Don't forget that in 02/03 we went on our record losing streak in the second half of the season.

Update after Grimsby game. Our average is 1.71 points per game

Required points per game (PPG)

Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.71

Variance

Automatic - 0.12
Play offs +0.1

I believe it seemed worse than it was because 1) we had been averaging over two points a game till then and 2) that dip in form combined with a superb run of form by Rubbish and Dustbins cost us the title.
But in that "losing" streak, following our 4-0 mangling of Swansea which gave us the 14-point lead, we actually lost only four games out of the remaining 13.
Our finish in the play-off final season was considerably worse.

Mind, we'd do well to avoid any kind of a dip this time round since we don't have 14 points to play with!

the number of teams who have won titles who don't deserve any titles at all pi$$es me off - Hartlepool United would be more deserving of the title "champions" than any other. I will fight to the death to defend that statement.
Fucking othe poxy scumbag teams. I fucking hate every single one of them who ever deprived my team of its rightful place as champions - i.e. Derby in 56/57, darlo in 90/91 and rubbish scumbag plastic nonleague wankers in 02/03. May every person involved in any of those teams suffer a horrible and slow lingering painful death. C-u-nt-s.

Good drink Mr.Parmo?!?!

A succinct, reasonable and well argued piece of logic.

i recommend anger management

Let's see Stephen Hawking argue the case against that one then.

Update after Peterborough game. Our average is 1.71 points per game

Games played 25
Points 44
Average PPG 1.76


Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.76

Variance

Automatic -0.07
Play offs +0.15

Updating this approach, after 25 games in...

2004/5 - 40 points, finished 6th
2003/4 - 38 points, finished 6th
2002/3 - 50 points, finished 2nd
2001/2 - 33 points, finished 7th
2000/1 - 40 points, finished 4th
1999/0 - 42 points, finished 7th
1990/1 - 43 points, finished 3rd (amazingly this was on the 5th February)

2006/2007 44 points ................. ????

As a side note, three teams this season are doing as well as we did as runaway leaders in 2002/3.

The division might be crap but the front runners are doing very well thank you.

Update after Mansfield game. Our average is 1.81 points per game

Games played 26
Points 47
Average PPG 1.81


Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.81

Variance

Automatic -0.02
Play offs +0.2

Update after Shrewsbury game. Our average is 1.71 points per game

Games played 27
Points 48
Average PPG 1.72


Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.81

Variance

Automatic -0.11
Play offs +0.11

Update after MK Dons game. Our average is 1.821 points per game

Games played 28
Points 51
Average PPG 1.82


Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.81

Variance

Automatic -0.01
Play offs +0.21

Closer and closer we get and now we're within striking range!
Just as important, have you seen how far we are above 8th now?

P.S.

Thank you Shrewsbury
Come on Grimsby (outside shot I know!)

We are now on track for automatic promotion.


Update after Bury game. Our average is 1.83 points per game

Games played 30
Points 55
Average PPG 1.83


Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.81

Variance

Automatic -0.00
Play offs +0.223

We are still on track for automatic promotion.
Update after Swindon game. Our average is 1.87 points per game
Games played 31
Points 58
Average PPG 1.87
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.87
Variance
Automatic +.04
Play offs +0.26

Update after Walsall game. Our average is 1.91 points per game
Games played 32
Points 61
Average PPG 1.91
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.91
Variance
Automatic +.08
Play offs +0.30

I believe the 81 and 71 can now actually be reduced by a couple for this season.

Having looked at the remaining fixtures of ourselves and the teams challenging ,there are a large number where teams in the top 7 have to play each other resulting in many points being dropped,I put Pools' in that category ,for the time being believing we wont go to the end of the season without losing somewhere,i therefore believe something like 77-79 points may well be enough to clinch 3rd place.Meaning 5 wins or the equvilant number of points in wins/draws will clinch that place.Having got 7 home games left,4 wins 2 draws and a defeat means in my calculations 1 draw from the 6 away games would get us up.Even losing 2 at home and drawing 1 would only mean 1 away victory to clinch it.just my opinion I may well be proved to be wrong.kajira

Update after Torquay. Our average is 1.94 points per game
Games played 33
Points 61
Average PPG 1.94
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.94
Variance
Automatic +.11
Play offs +0.33

You might be right but for the sake of this exercise I'll stick with historical stats for now.

It's just a game for the moment isn't it but it is fun to speculate.

* Five teams are still capable of beating 100 points
* We could finish with nearly 100 points and still not get promoted
* We could lose every single remaining game, Torquay could win every single one of theirs, and we could then finish bottom. Even more incredibly, Torquay can still win automatic promotion.

The magic promotion number is now valid and stands at 38. But let's save that for later.
The promot-u-lator index still stands at its theoretical maximum of 23, although practically speaking Torquay aren't going to catch us on points then overtake us on goal difference. So let's call it a virtual 22.

As a reminder, when either of those numbers fall to zero we're oop!

Meanwhile take a look at this: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/runin.html
Stockport in 2nd place if every team retains the form of its last 8 games
No need to say who'll be first like.

Update after Macclesfield. Our average is 1.97 points per game
Games played 34
Points 67
Average PPG 1.97
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 1.97
Variance
Automatic +.14
Play offs +0.36

When this started I looked at the history. The highest points total that made the final places in both automatic promotion and the last play off place are the targeted PPG. That does not mean that its impossible to achieve with less.

Update after Boston. Our average is now exactly 2 points per game
Games played 35
Points 70
Average PPG 2.0
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 2.00
Variance
Automatic +.17
Play offs +0.39

Update after Hereford. Our average is now over 2 points per game at 2.03.

Games played 36
Points 73
Average PPG 2.02
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 2.00
Variance
Automatic +0.2
Play offs +0.40

Update after Darlington. Our average is now over 2 points per game at 2.05.

Games played 39
Points 78
Average PPG 2.05
Required points per game (PPG)
Automatic 1.83
Play offs 1.61
Current 2.05
Variance
Automatic +0.22
Play offs +0.44

More importantly, if you initial points "quotations" were correct, we need 3 points for promotion and 6 to be sure?

Aye, there's no reason to suppose that 84 points won't be good enough for 3rd place. With 7 games to go MK are on 71 so they need 13 from their last games which averages almost 2 points a game.

I reckon we'll end up in the low nineties.

Since I made a mistake. You have a problem with that ?

Don't say that - on the basis of that calculation I have just gone in to ask for a pay rise.

Hartlepool.....95
Walsall.........86
Swindon.......86

Milton K........82
Lincoln..........78
Shrewsbury...73
Stockport......72

Darlington 68
Wycombe 66
Peterboro 66
Bristol R 59

So, Mr I, is it still looking on for promotion do you think?

Looking promising you have to say. Anyway, lets see how Swindon finish in third. It does lookd like another record will be broken with the points for third place.